What’s the Market’s Next Move? Here’s What the Weekly Data Tells Us

Introduction

The markets wrapped up the week on a strong note, with the Nifty rising 1.59%, showing resilience amid mixed global signals and domestic macro cues. While the broader trend seems optimistic, the question everyone’s asking is: What’s the market’s next move?

This week’s action delivered both exciting gains and steep losses across sectors. On the winners’ side, Swiggy Ltd. surged 9.97% to ₹389.5 and has caught analyst attention with a “Buy” call. Aditya Birla Capital touched a fresh 10-year high with an 8.28% gain, while BEML and Endurance Tech recorded solid upswings on high volume, indicating strong momentum.

On the flip side, some stocks faced heavy selling. AstraZeneca Pharma plummeted 15.59%, and Hindustan Zinc saw a block deal-driven decline of 14.71%. Other sharp losers included Valor Estate, Concord Biotech (which also saw high-volume losses), and Jubilant Ingrevia.

In this blog, we’ll dive into the week’s market performance in more detail, uncover the story behind a major news event, analyze one stock fundamentally, and share a potential trade setup. Whether you’re a short-term trader or a long-term investor, read on as we decode the market’s next move.

Nifty 50 Weekly Technical Outlook: Setting Up for the Market’s Next Move

As the Nifty 50 index closed the week at 25,112.40, logging a solid 1.59% weekly gain, all eyes are on the market’s next move. The broader trend remains decisively bullish, driven by a textbook pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart—a classic hallmark of a healthy uptrend.

1. Price Structure and Market Context

The recent breakout above the 24,450–24,700 zone has held firm, with the index now consolidating within a tight 25,050–25,150 band. This type of tight-range consolidation at elevated levels often precedes a breakout, hinting that the market’s next move could be another leg up in the ongoing rally.

The 9-week EMA at 24,230.89 continues to rise and sits well below current levels, acting as a dynamic support that underscores the strength of the prevailing trend.

2. Key Technical Levels to Watch

• Support Zones:
  • 24,700: Strong retest level post-breakout.
  • 24,230: EMA-based dynamic trend support.
  • 23,800: Former swing high turned structural base.
• Resistance Zones:
  • 25,150: Immediate resistance from current range.
  • 26,000: Round-number psychological barrier.
  • 26,266: All-Time High—medium-term breakout target.

3. Volume and Participation

Weekly volume hit 1.64 billion, consistent with institutional buying and lacking any signs of panic or distribution. This reinforces confidence that the index is merely pausing before deciding on its next directional leg, likely higher.

4. Price Action Insights

Every dip is being bought, and each week’s low is higher than the last—a bullish continuation signal. The ongoing range resembles a bullish flag or ascending base, suggesting that the market’s next move is likely to be a breakout above 25,150, pushing toward the 25,600–25,800 zone.

5. Scenarios for the Week Ahead

• Primary Scenario (Bullish Bias):
  A breakout above 25,150 could trigger a momentum rally toward 25,800, and eventually toward the all-time high at 26,266.
• Alternate Scenario (Short-Term Pullback):
  A failure to breach 25,150, followed by a close below 24,700, may lead to a mild pullback toward 24,230 or 23,800—likely offering accumulation opportunities rather than signs of a top.

6. Strategic Takeaways

• For Positional Traders: Hold longs above 24,700 and consider fresh entries above 25,150.
• For Short-Term Traders: Watch for dips into 24,800–24,900 as potential buy zones, with tight risk controls.

Where’s the Market’s Next Move Headed?

The technical setup remains decisively bullish, with no signs of distribution or exhaustion. As long as 24,700 holds, the base case remains a buy-on-dips market, with a likely upside breakout on the horizon. Whether it’s a fast push toward 25,800+ or a brief pullback first, the charts are clearly setting up for the market’s next move—and it looks like the bulls are still in charge.

Dip in Net Direct Tax Collection – What It Means for the Market’s Next Move

On June 21, 2025, government data revealed that net direct tax collection for the current fiscal (as of June 19) declined by 1.39% YoY to ₹4.59 lakh crore. This is a significant slowdown when viewed against last year’s stronger performance, and it could influence the market’s next move—especially in sectors sensitive to corporate earnings and economic growth indicators.

Let’s break it down:

Key Numbers from the Report

• Net Direct Tax Collection: ₹4.59 lakh crore (↓ 1.39% YoY)
• Advance Tax Collection: ₹1.56 lakh crore (↑ 3.87% YoY vs 27% last year)
• Corporate Tax Collection: ₹1.73 lakh crore (↓ ~5% YoY)

What’s Driving the Decline?

1. Sluggish Corporate Profit Growth:
   A 5% YoY decline in corporate tax collections strongly suggests tepid earnings in Q1FY26. This aligns with margin pressure in some sectors, especially those dependent on exports or facing high input costs.
2. Weak Advance Tax Growth:
   Advance tax is a leading indicator of corporate confidence. The dramatic slowdown from 27% to just 3.87% implies that companies are cautious about future profitability. This could weigh on capital expenditures and hiring trends.
3. High Base Effect:
   Last year’s strong tax collections created a high base, making this year’s performance appear softer. But even after adjusting for that, the 5% corporate tax dip is notable.

Sector Impact Analysis

Here’s how different sectors might be affected—and how it could shape the market’s next move:

🔻 Likely Negatively Affected Stocks/Sectors:

1. Banking and Financial Services
   • Lower corporate profitability → Higher NPA risk, especially for corporate loan-heavy banks.
   • Impact on PSU banks like SBI, Bank of Baroda, and NBFCs like Aditya Birla Capital (which just hit a 10-year high).
2. Capital Goods & Infra
   • Companies like BEML (weekly gain of 7.83%) might see tempered investor sentiment if private capex slows down.
3. Real Estate & Ancillaries
   • Tax data often foreshadows liquidity cycles. A weaker tax base could lead to lower government spending or delayed infra projects, hurting names like L&T, Dalmia Bharat, or cement stocks.

✅ Resilient or Defensive Stocks:

1. Consumption & FMCG
   • These sectors are relatively insulated from corporate tax swings. Stocks like HUL, Nestlé, and Tata Consumer may hold up.
2. Pharma & Healthcare
   • Companies like Cipla, Sun Pharma, and even AstraZeneca Pharma (despite its recent 15.59% fall) are likely to be shielded due to secular demand and lower correlation to macro tax trends.
3. IT Sector
   • While advance tax slowdown might include some IT firms, the sector’s strong offshore billing and margin levers keep names like TCS, Infosys, and LTIMindtree relatively stable.

How This Affects the Market’s Next Move

• Sentiment Check: A slowdown in direct taxes introduces caution, especially as Q1 earnings begin. It may result in some profit-booking near resistance levels, like 25,150 on Nifty.
• Macro Visibility: Investors might become more stock-specific rather than sector-driven. Expect rotation into defensives and export-oriented plays, away from capital-intensive or cyclical bets.
• Trading Strategy Shift: Until tax collections rebound or corporate results surprise positively, expect range-bound movement with resistance near 25,150 and support near 24,700. The broader trend remains up, but macro softness could moderate the market’s next move.

In Summary

This tax data isn’t just a macro number—it’s a signal. A lower-than-expected direct tax collection hints at profit pressure and corporate caution, potentially slowing the market’s pace in the short term. For traders and investors, this reinforces the need to focus on quality stocks, risk management, and buying dips selectively as the market prepares for its next move.

Stock on the Technical Radar: Sheela Foam – A Potential Trend Reversal in the Market’s Next Move

As we assess the market’s next move, it’s not just about indices—it’s also about identifying stocks poised for outsized returns if market momentum continues. One such candidate making its way onto technical radars is Sheela Foam Ltd.

Despite being in a multi-year downtrend since 2022, the stock is now flashing early reversal signals. This setup isn’t just another bounce—it could be the first major trend shift in years.

1. Primary Trend Context: Signs of a Base

Sheela Foam peaked near ₹2,100 in 2022 and has been in a well-defined downtrend since. However, recent price behavior suggests the downtrend might be nearing its end:

• Price has been flattening out between ₹700–₹750 for multiple weeks—indicative of base-building.
• A volume spike above 2.7 million hints at institutional interest or capitulation washout.
• Most notably, the stock is trying to reclaim its 9-week EMA for the first time in over a year—often the first sign of trend reversal.

As the broader market eyes its next move, stocks showing early-stage reversals like Sheela Foam could lead the next wave of upside.

2. Trade Setup: A Reversal with Conviction

• Entry: ₹742
• Stop-Loss: ₹619 (recent swing low)
• Target: ₹1,282
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.15 — excellent for swing and positional traders.

This trade structure bets on a mean reversion + breakout anticipation, catching the turn near its structural base. It’s a high-conviction setup if the market’s next leg is higher.

3. Key Technical Levels

Price Zone	Significance
₹619–₹648	Final support, key swing low
₹742	EMA reclaim + breakout trigger
₹748–₹760	Short-term resistance cluster
₹900–₹950	Midway supply zone, former support
₹1,282	Target zone, corresponds to 2022 breakdown
₹1,459	Long-term Fibonacci retracement target

A close above ₹760 on weekly charts would likely confirm trend reversal and align with the market’s broader bullish narrative.

4. Volume & Participation: Early Accumulation Zone

• Recent surge in weekly volumes after a long dry spell supports the view of smart money entry.
• Sustained price above ₹700 with volume confirmation would validate the setup and suggest a growing institutional presence.

5. Indicators and Psychology: Sentiment is at Rock Bottom

• The 9-week EMA crossover shows early bullish shift.
• This looks like a Stage 1 base formation (Stan Weinstein’s methodology), often a precursor to a major uptrend.
• Sentiment remains muted—a perfect environment for stealth accumulation before public interest returns.

Why This Matters for the Market’s Next Move

If the Nifty continues its bullish trajectory and breaks above 25,150, reversal plays like Sheela Foam could outperform. While many stocks are extended or consolidating at highs, Sheela Foam is offering a fresh setup from the ground up, ideal for traders betting on rotational momentum.

Strategic Considerations

• Positioning: Moderate allocation until ₹760 breakout.
• Add on strength: Above ₹800 with high volume.
• Trail Stop: Move SL to entry after 15–20% upside.
• Volume validation: Essential for trend confirmation.

Conclusion

In a market that continues to flirt with new highs, Sheela Foam is not just recovering—it’s potentially reversing years of weakness. As we anticipate the market’s next move, this setup presents an asymmetric opportunity with a clear structure, defined risk, and compelling upside.

If the broader trend holds, Sheela Foam could become one of the stealth winners in the coming months.

Fundamental Analysis of Ethos Ltd: A Niche Luxury Retailer in Focus

Business Overview: India’s Leading Luxury Watch Retailer

Ethos Ltd, a subsidiary of KDDL Ltd, is India’s largest luxury and premium watch retailer. Since its inception in 2007, the company has built a dominant position in the niche luxury watch space, commanding a 13% market share in the premium and luxury watch segment, and a 20% share in the exclusive luxury space (FY20). Moreover, Ethos stands out as the only organized retailer in India offering certified pre-owned luxury watches—a segment gaining traction globally.

In addition to watches, the company has strategically diversified its product line, entering the luxury luggage segment (via Rimowa) and luxury jewelry (through Messika) in FY24. These moves indicate Ethos’ ambition to transform from a watch specialist into a broader luxury lifestyle platform.

1. Financial Strength and Profitability Metrics

Over the past few years, Ethos has demonstrated solid top-line growth, backed by premiumization and expansion across physical and digital channels. Here’s a closer look:

Key Metric	FY25	3-Year CAGR	Observation
Revenue	₹1,252 Cr	29%	Strong growth supported by ASP rise
Net Profit	₹96 Cr	60%	Profit margins have expanded
Operating Margin (OPM)	15%	↑ from 12% in FY22	Stable, indicating cost efficiency
EPS (TTM)	₹35.93	From ₹11.19 in FY22	Strong earnings compounding
ROCE	13%	↓ from 18% in FY23	Moderately declining efficiency
Debt-to-Equity Ratio	0.29	Low	Healthy balance sheet

Importantly, Ethos has maintained a capital-light model relative to traditional retail chains, thanks to its high-value product focus and efficient digital infrastructure. However, its rising inventory levels (₹593 Cr) and lengthening cash conversion cycle (215 days) are worth watching.

2. Business Moat and Operating Model

Ethos’ moat is rooted in its exclusive brand tie-ups, digital infrastructure, and HNIs-focused loyalty program (Club Echo) with over 3.28 lakh affluent members.

Furthermore, the company has grown its omnichannel presence effectively:

• 69.5% of FY24 revenue came from 66 physical stores across 26 cities.
• 30.5% came from online, supported by India’s largest luxury watch website and a dedicated digital team.

Additionally, Ethos offers watches across multiple price tiers—from ₹25,000 up to ₹10 lakh-plus. The average selling price (ASP) increased significantly from ₹1.08 lakh in FY21 to ₹1.89 lakh in FY24, indicating premium customer adoption and improved brand equity.

3. Growth Drivers and Strategic Positioning

Looking ahead, several structural tailwinds support Ethos’ growth story:

• Luxury Retail Boom: India’s rising affluence, urbanization, and growing appetite for global luxury brands provide a strong demand backdrop.
• Expansion into New Cities: The company continues to expand retail coverage, with new store launches in Kochi, Dehradun, and Bengaluru planned in FY25.
• Certified Pre-Owned Watch Market: This emerging segment not only offers higher margins but also enhances brand credibility and lifecycle engagement. Revenues here grew by 32% YoY to ₹19.6 Cr in FY25.
• Brand Exclusivity: With partnerships involving over 55 global brands, many of which are exclusive, Ethos has positioned itself as the gateway to premium international watch brands in India.
• Diversification into Lifestyle: Collaborations with Rimowa (luggage) and Messika (jewelry) mark the beginning of a broader luxury ecosystem play, reducing dependence on watches alone.

4. Valuation Snapshot: A Premium Stock at a Premium Price

Ethos currently trades at ₹2,703, with a market cap of ₹7,232 Cr and a P/E ratio of 75.1—well above the industry average of ~31.5. While the high valuation reflects growth optimism, it also leaves limited room for earnings disappointments or macro headwinds.

Valuation Metric	Value	Industry Benchmark
P/E	75.1	~31.5
EV/EBITDA	34.4	Elevated
Price to Book Value	7.38	Relatively High
Intrinsic Value (Fair)	~₹957	Based on DCF model

Despite the valuation premium, zero promoter pledge, improving institutional shareholding (DIIs at 17.85% in Mar 2025 vs 6.95% in 2022), and growing EPS may support continued investor interest.

5. Future Outlook: 5-Year Price Projection (2025–2030)

Let’s project Ethos’ potential stock performance under three realistic scenarios, assuming a forward-looking view of EPS growth, valuation re-rating, and business execution.

Base Case Scenario (Balanced Execution)

• EPS (FY30): ₹110
• Target P/E: 45
• Implied Price: ₹4,950
• 5-Year CAGR Return: ~12%

This scenario assumes steady growth in store count, consistent margin profile, and ongoing ASP improvement.

Bull Case Scenario (Aggressive Expansion + Re-rating)

• EPS (FY30): ₹130
• Target P/E: 55
• Implied Price: ₹7,150
• 5-Year CAGR Return: ~21%

Here, Ethos expands successfully into new verticals (jewelry, pre-owned), drives higher profitability, and gains valuation premium for becoming a lifestyle brand.

Bear Case Scenario (Execution Misses or Macro Slowdown)

• EPS (FY30): ₹95
• Target P/E: 28
• Implied Price: ₹2,660
• 5-Year CAGR Return: ~0%

This case assumes margin pressure, working capital stress, and a reversion to industry P/E averages due to investor fatigue or poor macro.

6. Investment Verdict: A High-Conviction Niche Bet with Risks

Ethos Ltd offers exposure to India’s fast-growing luxury consumption wave. With strong brand partnerships, customer loyalty, and a growing digital presence, it has the makings of a long-term compounder. However, at current valuations, entry timing becomes critical.

Investment Pros:

• Market leader in a niche luxury vertical
• Loyal HNI customer base with rising ASPs
• Strong revenue growth and emerging categories like pre-owned
• Low debt and improving institutional confidence

Investment Cons:

• Premium valuation could compress if growth falters
• Long inventory and working capital cycles
• ROCE and ROE are yet to reach elite levels (both ~10–13%)

Conclusion: Should You Buy Ethos Now or Wait?

In summary, Ethos is a long-term structural play on premium retail in India, somewhat like what Titan was two decades ago. While the market may demand near-perfect execution to justify current valuations, any broader market correction or sideways consolidation could offer better entry points.

For now, investors should accumulate selectively on dips, monitor execution in new verticals, and assess ROCE/ROE improvements over the next few quarters. If fundamentals improve in tandem with earnings growth, Ethos could comfortably double over the next 4–5 years, aligning with the broader trajectory of India’s rising luxury consumption story.

Conclusion: What Lies Ahead for the Market’s Next Move?

As we wrap up this weekly market roundup, the theme that ties everything together is clear—clarity is forming around the market’s next move, both at the index level and across key stocks and sectors.

From the Nifty 50’s solid 1.59% weekly gain and bullish price structure to select outperformers like Swiggy, Aditya Birla Capital, and BEML, momentum remains with the bulls. The index is consolidating just below resistance, and unless we see a breakdown below the critical 24,700 level, the broader trend remains upward. A decisive breakout above 25,150 could trigger the next leg toward 25,800 and eventually 26,266.

On the macroeconomic front, however, the slight dip in net direct tax collection and softening advance tax growth raise short-term caution. Sectors tied closely to earnings visibility—like banks, NBFCs, and heavy capex players—may see muted sentiment if this trend persists. Yet, this could also create stock-specific opportunities for agile traders and investors who follow institutional flows and earnings revisions closely.

Meanwhile, technically strong setups like Sheela Foam offer a compelling reversal opportunity, riding on a textbook Stage 1 base formation and early volume accumulation—offering traders a high R:R setup aligned with the market’s evolving direction.

Lastly, the deep dive into Ethos Ltd highlights a powerful long-term structural story within India’s emerging luxury consumption theme. Despite a rich valuation, Ethos demonstrates strong growth, expanding margins, and increasing institutional participation—making it a stock to accumulate patiently as part of a long-term watchlist tied to the market’s premiumization trend.

All signs point to a market that remains resilient, yet selective. Going forward, the market’s next move will depend on a blend of macro signals, earnings performance, and price-volume confirmations. Whether you are a short-term trader or a long-term investor, staying aligned with trend structures, fundamental strength, and risk management will be key to navigating the weeks ahead with clarity and conviction.

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