Weekly Special Newsletter: Key Highlights at a Glance
It started like just another June week. Then the RBI decided to shake things up.
A surprise rate cut — not just a symbolic move but a signal that growth concerns may be creeping into the narrative. Markets wasted no time celebrating:
- Nifty: +1.02%
- Bank Nifty: +1.49%
- Sensex: +0.91%
The biggest cheerleaders? Rate-sensitive sectors that love cheap money.
Sector Showdown: Rate Relief = Risk-On Rotation
| 🟢 Top Gaining Sectors | 📉 Top Losing Sectors |
|---|---|
| Realty +7.61% | Telecom Equipment -2.94% |
| Retailing +5.80% | Healthcare Equip & Supplies -2.44% |
| Fertilizers +4.44% | Tech Hardware & Equip -1.30% |
Real estate led from the front, boosted by improving affordability outlook. Retail and agri-inputs followed, on hopes of rising demand and a good monsoon.
Meanwhile, the money quietly moved out of defensives — telecom, healthcare, and hardware, which had little in the way of triggers this week.
Weekly Special Newsletter: Gainers vs. Losers Table
| 🟢 Top Gainers | Change | Price | 🔻 Top Losers | Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cochin Shipyard | +22.88% | ₹2,392.5 | MMTC | -14.22% | ₹73.57 |
| AstraZeneca Pharma | +22.8% | ₹9,790 | Niva Bupa Health Ins. | -10.1% | ₹82.97 |
| Brainbees (FirstCry) | +19.07% | ₹414.9 | Aditya Birla Fashion | -9.41% | ₹77.77 |
Cochin Shipyard stayed strong on the back of defence tailwinds and a textbook breakout.
AstraZeneca stunned with a 10-year high, showing what conviction looks like in a defensive-growth pharma name.
And FirstCry (Brainbees) reminded the market that retail-tech isn’t done yet — especially with consumer sentiment returning.
On the flip side, MMTC gave back recent gains as the gold rush cooled off.
Niva Bupa saw low-volume selling pressure — typical of illiquid financial names.
And Aditya Birla Fashion fell victim to a block deal, shaking up weak hands in a fragile chart setup.
This week proved one thing: when central banks blink, markets charge.
Top News of the Week: India Moves Ahead, One Surprise at a Time
This week wasn’t just about charts and candlesticks. The macro stage was just as active, packed with bold policy moves, juicy corporate updates, and a dash of global chaos (as always).
Let’s zoom out, then drill in.
Global vs Local: Same World, Different Vibes
While the US economy slows down to a projected 1% GDP growth in 2025, and geopolitical tensions still loom (hello, Russia-Ukraine), India’s vibe is remarkably different — upbeat, growth-driven, and surprisingly resilient.
- IMF estimates say India could overtake Japan to become the 4th largest economy in 2025 (GDP: $4.18 trillion).
- OECD sees India growing at 6.3% in 2025, backed by strong demand and investment — even as the rest of the world hits the brakes.
Even the rupee strengthened to ₹85.68/$ on June 5, thanks to cooling inflation and stable external flows.
RBI Rate Cut: The Big Catalyst
June 6 brought the real fireworks.
RBI slashed the repo rate by 50 bps (to 5.5%), more than expected, and shifted its stance to “neutral”.
Markets roared back in response:
The central bank didn’t just lower rates — it also cut the CRR, throwing in a liquidity booster shot. Banks, autos, and real estate stocks immediately felt the heat, with HDFC Bank hitting record highs.
The message was clear: growth is now the priority.
GDP & GST Data: Macro Health Check
Earlier in the week, two big numbers gave bulls a reason to smile:
- India’s Q4 GDP grew 7.4% YoY, beating 6.7% estimates. FY25 full-year growth settled at 6.5%.
- GST collections in May 2025 hit a record ₹2.01 lakh crore — a sign of strong consumption and healthy formal sector growth.
This combo of strong output + revenue pickup gave the RBI the macro room it needed to go bold.
Trading Holiday Confusion: Bakrid Clarified
Traders got anxious around June 6–7, but the exchanges didn’t blink.
Despite Bakrid being a gazetted holiday, BSE and NSE remained open on June 6. June 7 was a regular Saturday (closed anyway). Net result: no disruption.
Starlink Enters India — And So Does Errol Musk
Two stories with the Musk name hit headlines:
- Elon Musk’s Starlink got the nod to roll out satellite internet services in India. Expect rural broadband transformation — and potential plays in telecom infrastructure.
- Errol Musk, Elon’s father, toured India and called it a “huge opportunity” for EVs and satcom. He also hinted Tesla may “get lucky” in India — a subtle but hopeful nudge.
India Inc & Policy Moves
- Adani Group: Its airport unit secured $750M refinancing, but Adani stocks were down this week. The group may enter airport ground services next.
- Flipkart: Got RBI approval to offer lending, a big step in its fintech push.
- L&T: Launched India’s first ESG-listed bond with HSBC — a new frontier in sustainable finance.
- Vodafone Idea: Plans to launch 5G in 17 circles by August, but remains in a cash crunch.
Real Estate: Rate Cut, But No Rush Yet
Despite the RBI’s generosity, the housing market isn’t rushing to respond.
- Luxury housing demand is cooling, particularly in cities with high unemployment and stagnant wages.
- Home prices are projected to rise by 6.0% in 2025 and 5.0% in 2026, following a 4.0% increase in 2024.
Real estate stocks are up. But real-world demand? Still playing catch-up.
Quick Commerce Grows Fast, But Hits Speed Bumps
Valued to reach ₹1.5–1.7 lakh crore by 2027, India’s quick commerce sector is booming. But it’s not all smooth:
- Category adoption is patchy (some items fly, others flop).
- Logistics strain and retention costs are real threats to profitability.
AI in Export: India’s Digital Push Gets Smarter
Indian exporters are going AI-first, using machine learning to navigate tax systems, improve supply chains, and stay globally competitive. This move aligns with the Digital India mission, and may shape the next wave of trade-tech innovation.
Weekly Special Newsletter: The Bull Has a Case — Just Ask Gold
This week wasn’t just about headline rallies. Beneath the surface, a key ratio quietly sent a strong signal: stocks may be ready to outshine gold again.
Let’s break it down — visually and technically.
Left Chart: Sensex-to-Gold Ratio (Weekly)
| 📌 Metric | 📊 Status |
|---|---|
| Current Ratio | ~0.85 |
| Support Zone | 0.80–0.85 (currently holding) |
| Resistance to Watch | 0.90–0.95, then 1.00 |
- After months of decline, this equity-to-gold ratio finally looks like it’s bottoming.
- The recent base between Feb–May 2025 suggests the worst of equity underperformance vs. gold may be behind us.
- If this base holds and we see a breakout above 0.90, it would be a solid sign that equities (led by Sensex) are regaining strength over defensive plays like gold.
📈 What It Means: This is risk-on behavior. Market confidence is returning. Investors may be tilting back toward equities as growth optimism picks up steam.
Right Chart: Sensex Price (Weekly)
| 📌 Metric | 📊 Status |
|---|---|
| Current Price | 82,189 |
| Trendline Support | Intact since April 2024 (~71,000 low) |
| Key Support | 80,000 (short-term), 77,000 / 75,000 (critical) |
| Next Resistance | 83,500 / 84,200 |
- From the April 2024 bottom, Sensex has been in an upward channel, bouncing off trendline support and reclaiming psychological levels.
- We’re currently holding above 80,000, and momentum looks healthy.
📈 What It Means: As long as 80,000 holds, the uptrend remains safe. A push toward 83,500–84,200 is likely in the coming week. Only a break below 77,000 would trigger broader caution.
Combined View: Ratio and Price Agree
The convergence of these two charts builds a stronger bullish case:
- The Sensex-to-Gold ratio bottoming = equities may outperform gold.
- The Sensex price trend = bullish continuation toward key resistance.
If both these trends follow through, next week could extend gains, particularly in growth-sensitive sectors like financials, autos, and real estate.
Key Levels to Watch (Next Week)
| Parameter | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| Sensex Price | 80,000 / 77,000 | 83,500 / 84,200 |
| S/G Ratio | 0.82–0.85 | 0.90 / 1.00 |
Pro Tip: Use the S/G ratio as a sentiment gauge. If it rises, growth stocks will likely outperform. If it fades, risk-off may sneak back in.
Stock of the Week in the Weekly Special Newsletter: Geojit Financial
Ticker: GEOJITFSL | Sector: Financial Services | CMP: ~₹85
Why This Stock?
Geojit Financial Services has emerged as a well-diversified mid-sized player in India’s financial intermediation space. From broking and mutual funds to insurance and portfolio advisory, its business model is riding the wave of India’s financialization and digital shift — with signs of a strong turnaround on both fundamental and technical fronts.
Business Snapshot
Diverse Financial Ecosystem
Geojit offers a 360° suite:
- Retail Broking (Flip, TraderX platforms)
- Mutual Fund & Insurance Distribution (FundsGenie, tie-ups with top banks & insurers)
- Portfolio & Margin Services (PMS, AIF, Margin Funding)
- Digital Push: 94% online onboarding, 86% F&O volumes online.
Revenue Shift Reflecting Stability
| Source | H1 FY25 | FY22 |
|---|---|---|
| Brokerage | 46% | 58% |
| Distribution Income | 22% | 16% |
| Interest Income | 12% | 8% |
| Others | 20% | 18% |
💡 This mix shows rising annuity-style income and reduced dependency on volatile broking revenue.
Footprint & Reach
- 500 branches in 20 states & 3 UTs
- 78% in Tier II & III cities — key for retail growth
- Global JVs in UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait
- GIFT City IFSC presence for global wealth business
Growing Assets & Client Base
- Assets Under Custody: ₹1.13 lakh crore (Q2 FY25)
- MF AUM Doubled: ₹20,085 Cr (Q2 FY25)
- Clients: Grew from 12 lakh (FY22) → 14.45 lakh (Q2 FY25)
Upcoming Triggers
- ₹200 Cr rights issue approved (Oct 2024)
- Business reorganization via subsidiary Geojit Investments Ltd
- Focus on Tier III expansion & cross-sell
Technical Analysis: Elliott Wave + Fibonacci Pro Setup
Elliott Wave Review
- Clear 5-wave impulse completed ✅
- No wave overlaps, volume supports wave 3
- Wave 2 and 4 respected time & price alternation principles
Fibonacci Retracement (Post Wave 5)
- Price is bouncing from 23.6% level (~₹85)
- Resistance levels:
- ₹98.7 (38.2%)
- ₹110.1 (50%)
- ₹121.5 (61.8%)
Fibonacci Extension (Next Wave Projection)
- If new impulse begins, targets are:
- ₹158 (Previous top, 100%)
- ₹217.9 (Wave 3/C = 1.618×)
- ₹230+ (Aggressive extension zone)
Risk Zones & Market Strategy
| Level | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| ₹85 | Immediate pivot. Crucial short-term |
| ₹78 | Breakdown = bearish risk |
| ₹70–60 | Long-term support. Bull case invalid if broken |
Bullish Outlook: The Base Case
- Holding ₹85 signals strength
- Move above ₹98–110 = confirmation of breakout
- Short-term targets: ₹137 → ₹158
- Extension target: ₹217.9 possible in medium-term rally
Final Pro Verdict
Geojit is fundamentally robust, digitally driven, and now technically aligned for a fresh upmove. The wave structure is clean and complete, the retracement shallow, and the setup leans bullish.
🔍 Watch for breakout above ₹98.7 with volume. That’s your trigger.
Conclusion: A Market at the Cusp
This week’s charts — especially the Sensex-to-Gold ratio and the Sensex price action — are flashing an important signal: equities are regaining strength against traditional hedges like gold. The bounce from key support zones indicates a base formation, and if follow-through buying emerges next week, we could be looking at a new leg up in the broader market.
At the same time, our Stock of the Week — Geojit Financial Services — is not just a compelling digital finance growth story, but also shows a technically clean Elliott Wave setup with bullish Fibonacci extensions. This reinforces the theme: midcaps in niche segments may lead the next breakout.
Stay focused on quality setups
Respect support levels as trend pivots
Keep risk defined — the real breakout lies beyond the noise
Markets reward patience, preparation, and position-sizing. Keep your watchlist ready — next week could bring decisive moves.
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FAQs – Weekly Special Newsletter
1. Why did the stock market rally on June 6, 2025?
Because the RBI surprised with a 50 bps rate cut, boosting sentiment across sectors like banking and real estate.
2. Was June 6 a trading holiday due to Bakrid?
No, markets remained open on June 6. Bakrid was not listed as an official trading holiday.
3. What’s India’s GDP growth rate for Q4 FY25?
India reported a strong 7.4% growth in Q4, beating expectations.
4. How did GST collections perform in May 2025?
GST revenue rose by 20.4% YoY, reaching ₹1.7 trillion — a sign of strong economic activity.
5. What change did RBI make in its policy stance?
The RBI shifted from an “accommodative” to “neutral” stance, signaling a possible pause in future rate cuts.
6. What’s the outlook for India’s economy in 2025?
India is expected to grow at 6.3% in 2025, backed by domestic demand and investments.
7. Did any global events impact Indian markets?
While US-China trade tensions and geopolitical risks continued, they had limited effect on Indian equities.
8. What’s the status of India’s monsoon forecast?
The forecast points to an above-normal monsoon, supporting rural demand and market sentiment.
9. What’s the Sensex-to-Gold ratio suggesting?
The ratio is bottoming near 0.85, hinting that equities may start to outperform gold.
10. What’s the next level to watch on the Sensex?
If momentum continues, the next upside target could be around 83,500–84,200.
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