Weekly Market Wrap: Key Drivers, Top News, and Sector Outlook

Market Performance: A Bullish Bounce Back

Welcome to this weekly market wrap, where we break down the major drivers behind the stock market’s strong performance. The Indian stock market wrapped up the week on a strong note, snapping recent volatility with a broad-based rally. The Nifty 50 rose 2.09%, while the Sensex gained 2.00%. Leading the charge was the Nifty Bank, which hit a new record high, ending the week up by 2.12%.

Among sectors, Telecom Services stole the show with a massive 8.3% gain, reflecting optimism around 5G expansion and enterprise deals. On the flip side, Hardware Technology & Equipment declined by 1.03%, the only major laggard this week.

So, what fueled this week’s rebound?

Key Drivers:

• Geopolitical Easing: Tensions in the Middle East cooled, lifting global risk sentiment.
• Crude Oil Dip: Brent crude prices fell below $80, reducing inflationary fears for India.
• Weak Dollar Advantage: A softer U.S. dollar supported FII inflows and rupee stability.
• RBI Boost: The Reserve Bank of India relaxed provisioning norms for infrastructure loans, giving a big leg-up to financials.
• Strong Earnings: Corporate Q4 numbers continued to impress across several sectors.
• FII Inflows: Foreign institutional investors pumped in ₹8,709 crore, reversing prior outflows.
• Volatility Decline: The India VIX dropped 4.09%, signaling reduced uncertainty and higher risk appetite.

Weekly Market Wrap: Index Gains and Sector Leaders

Let’s spotlight the biggest winners and losers from this week’s trading action.

🔼 Top Gainers This Week

Stock	Weekly Change	Notable Highlight	LTP (₹)
Kirloskar Brothers	+29.24%	High gain, high volume rally	2,327.8
Nuvama Wealth	+20.41%	10-year high	8,287.5
Narayana Hrudayalaya	+18.90%	10-year high	2,263.2
Sammaan Capital	+18.35%	High gain, high volume	140.69
Raymond Lifestyle	+17.71%	High gain, high volume	1,222.3

These stocks showed a combination of strong momentum, fresh breakouts, and high investor interest—particularly Kirloskar Brothers, which led the pack with a near 30% surge.

🔻 Top Losers This Week

Stock	Weekly Change	LTP (₹)	Notable Highlight
KPIT Technologies	-9.14%	1,267.1	Tech under pressure
Garden Reach Shipbuilders	-7.76%	3,032.6	Post-rally profit-booking
Godrej Industries	-7.49%	1,247.5	Weak sector sentiment
OIL	-6.78%	433.4	Crude-linked weakness
Ola Electric	-6.49%	43.09	Hit 10-year low

Weakness in tech and oil-linked names dominated the loser’s list, with KPIT Technologies and Ola Electric facing significant selloffs.

Nifty Weekly Outlook: Will the Momentum Continue?

As we close out this weekly market wrap, all eyes are now on the Nifty 50—and the price action speaks volumes. After weeks of consolidation and hesitation, the index finally delivered a powerful breakout. The Nifty ended the week at 25,637.80, gaining over 2.09%, and crucially, closing well above the key resistance zone around 25,200.

This breakout is not only technically significant but also psychologically reassuring for investors, especially after recent geopolitical jitters. Let’s break down what’s happening on the charts.

Technical Picture: Bulls in Command

• Breakout Confirmed: The Nifty has broken out of its sideways channel and closed above multiple weeks of resistance. The breakout came on rising volume—indicating strong participation from institutions and retail alike.
• New Support Forming at 25,200: The earlier resistance around 25,200 now becomes immediate support. As long as the index holds above this level, the bias remains upward.
• Next Major Resistance: 26,266: The chart shows the next key level at 26,266, which acted as a previous swing high. This is the zone traders will watch for signs of profit-booking or further momentum.
• EMA Trend Support: The 9-week exponential moving average (EMA) currently stands at 24,349, which continues to slope upwards. This EMA has acted as a dynamic support in recent rallies, suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact.

What Could Happen Next?

Barring any fresh external shocks, the Nifty appears poised to drift higher toward the 26,000–26,266 zone in the near term. Momentum indicators support the trend, and a drop in the India VIX by 4.09% this week indicates declining fear and rising risk appetite.

That said, any dip toward 25,200 or even 24,450–24,350 should be seen as a healthy pullback—not a breakdown. These zones could offer fresh entry points for investors and traders looking to ride the broader trend.

Also worth noting: with FII inflows of ₹8,709 crore, it seems foreign investors are buying into this breakout, adding further strength to the rally.

In Summary

The Nifty has re-established its uptrend after a clean breakout. As highlighted in this weekly market wrap, the index is technically well-positioned to extend its gains toward 26,000+, with support layers stacked below. Reduced volatility, strong institutional flows, and improving macro signals only add fuel to the bullish fire.

If momentum holds, July could begin on a high note.

Events: What’s on the Radar Next Week?

As this weekly market wrap signals a strong close for Indian equities, the week ahead could keep investors on their toes. Several key developments—both macro and sector-specific—are expected to influence sentiment and drive trading action.

Let’s take a look at the events that could steer the market next week:

1. Export Policy Focus: Piyush Goyal Meets Exporters – June 30

India’s Commerce Minister, Piyush Goyal, is set to meet exporters on Sunday to address concerns around rising global tensions and their impact on trade flows. The government may consider export-friendly tweaks to protect India’s overseas earnings.
📌 Potential impact: Positive cues for export-heavy sectors like textiles, pharma, and chemicals.

2. Electricity Futures Launch on NSE (Coming Weeks)

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) plans to roll out electricity futures, with zero trading fees for the first six months. The move aims to deepen energy market participation and offer better hedging tools for industrial users.
📌 Potential impact: Boost to power utilities, transmission firms, and energy exchanges.

3. IPO Wave: 13 Issues Including HDB Financial to Hit Market

In what’s being called an IPO tsunami, 13 companies—including HDB Financial Services—are lined up to raise approximately ₹16,000 crore next week. A rush of listings suggests robust capital market activity.
📌 Potential impact: Near-term liquidity pressure, but positive long-term confidence in India Inc.

4. Market Liquidity Watch: Risk of Equity Over-Supply

With fresh equity offerings flooding the markets, analysts are flashing caution. The sudden surge in IPOs and secondary sales might temporarily stretch valuations.
📌 Potential impact: Watch for profit-booking or rotation from frothy sectors like midcaps.

5. Reliance Industries (RIL) Q1 Results on Radar

Reliance, India’s most valuable stock, is due to report its Q1 FY26 earnings soon. Brokerage firm CLSA has hinted at the potential for a stock rebound, especially if telecom and retail segments deliver.
📌 Potential impact: Broader indices could be swayed depending on the results; Nifty and Sensex often mirror RIL’s trajectory.

Key Calendar Summary

Date	Event	Likely Impact
June 30	Exporters’ meeting with Commerce Minister	Positive for export-led sectors
July (TBA)	NSE Electricity Futures Launch	Energy sector re-rating
Next week	13 IPOs incl. HDB Financial	Liquidity test + sectoral churn
Ongoing	Equity supply concerns via IPO & QIPs	May trigger cautious trade in midcaps
Soon	Reliance Q1 Results	Sentiment driver for large-cap indices

Together, these events offer a mix of policy cues, liquidity shifts, and earnings momentum. Investors should track sector-specific reactions closely, as this could determine the next leg of leadership in the ongoing market rally.

Sector Outlook: Realty Poised for a Breakout?

As we round off this weekly market wrap, one sector that stands out technically and thematically is real estate. The Nifty Realty Index, despite ending the week down 1.94% at 993.95, is shaping up into a potentially bullish formation.

Chart Insight: Cup and Handle in Progress

The weekly chart of the Realty Index reveals a classic Cup and Handle formation, a pattern often associated with strong bullish continuation.

• Cup Formation Complete: The rounded bottom from late 2024 to early 2025 mirrors a textbook recovery base.
• Handle in Formation: The current sideways drift near resistance between 1,020–1,030 represents the handle.
• Neckline Resistance: A breakout above the 1,030–1,050 level could trigger a fresh leg higher, with potential targets near 1,140.

Importantly, the 9-week EMA is trending upward, offering dynamic support around the 930–940 zone. This underlines medium-term bullish strength as long as the index doesn’t breach the base of the handle pattern.

Why Realty Still Has Room to Grow

Beyond the technicals, the real estate sector has several macro and micro tailwinds:

• Lower Interest Rate Outlook: Easing inflation and the potential for rate cuts in H2 could boost housing demand.
• Urban Infra Push: Policy efforts around PMAY, smart cities, and metro expansions continue to support long-term growth.
• Commercial Leasing Recovery: Leasing activity across IT parks and retail spaces has picked up in recent quarters.
• FII Return to Financials: This indirectly benefits realty, as funding and credit availability improve.

Sector Strategy Ahead

While the Realty Index has paused for now, the structure remains bullish. A decisive close above 1,030–1,050 would likely invite momentum traders and long-term investors alike. Until then, a buy-on-dips approach near 950–970 may be prudent, with stop-loss zones below 930.

Final Thoughts: Bulls Regain Control, but Eyes on the Horizon

This weekly market wrap showed that Indian equities are regaining momentum, with benchmark indices hitting fresh highs and sectoral breakouts beginning to form. From easing global tensions and falling crude to RBI’s infrastructure loan boost and renewed FII inflows—macro and policy support aligned to lift market sentiment.

The Nifty’s strong breakout above 25,200 signals a continuation of the bullish trend, while falling India VIX hints at rising investor confidence. Sectors like telecom and financials led the charge this week, and technically strong setups in realty suggest more rotation into infrastructure-linked plays.

However, with a packed calendar of IPOs, upcoming earnings, and export policy developments, the week ahead calls for selective positioning and disciplined risk management. Watch for consolidation near resistance zones and continue to track sectors with improving fundamentals and bullish technical patterns.

As we move into July, staying informed and agile will be key.

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