Weekend Cheers: Bulls in Control as Nifty Soars

The Nifty weekend rally came in strong and decisive — with the index soaring 243 points to close at 24,853.15, just a whisker away from the 25,000 mark. The sharp move on Friday sealed a bullish tone heading into the weekend.

Sensex jumped 769 points, while Bank Nifty added 456 points, showing strength across key sectors. Defensive buying led the way, with FMCG stocks climbing 1.63%, making it the day’s best-performing sector. On the flip side, Pharma stocks slipped slightly, ending as the weakest group.

Eternal topped the charts with a 3.72% gain, while Sun Pharma dropped over 2%, dragging the pharma pack lower.

Overall, it was a clean finish to a volatile week. But with Nifty now hovering near a major psychological and technical resistance zone, Monday’s open could determine whether this rally has more legs or needs a breather.

In this edition, we decode the weekly close, highlight key setups, and outline how to position smartly for the next move.

Nifty Outlook: Rally Pauses Near Resistance, But Trend Still Intact

The Nifty weekend rally capped off a strong week, but the weekly chart tells a slightly more nuanced story. After a relentless rise from sub-22,000 levels in March, Nifty 50 has now entered a major resistance zone between 24,850 and 25,100 — and Friday’s price action reflects that hesitation.

Weekly Chart Analysis: Caution at the Top

Price Action:
The index has staged a textbook V-shaped recovery, reclaiming nearly all the ground lost during the late 2024 correction. This rally has held firm for several weeks, forming higher highs and higher lows — a structurally bullish pattern.

However, the latest weekly candle closed red with an upper wick, signaling that sellers are defending the 25,000 level. Despite the Nifty weekend rally, the red close hints at mild exhaustion.

Volume:
Encouragingly, the uptrend has been backed by above-average volume, especially during the breakout legs in April. That lends credibility to the broader move, even if short-term fatigue is visible.

Key Technical Levels

Zone	Type	Commentary
25,100	Resistance	Previous swing high — breakout above = bullish continuation
24,850	Current price	Near resistance — signs of supply pressure
24,200–24,300	Support zone	Previous breakout level; may attract dip buyers
23,700–23,800	Next support	Base of prior consolidation zone

Strategic Outlook: Bullish Bias, With Caution

• The medium-term trend remains bullish, and any pullbacks into the 23,800–24,200 zone would offer accumulation opportunities.
• Traders should watch for a weekly close above 25,100, which could open the path to 25,800–26,000 in the coming sessions.
• On the flip side, if Nifty slips below 24,200, short-term weakness could set in, dragging the index back toward 23,700.

Risk Considerations

• Election-related volatility, both domestic and global, may increase over the next two weeks.
• Traders should avoid aggressive positioning near resistance and maintain tight stop-loss levels.
• For investors, this is a time to focus on quality setups rather than chasing extended names.

Conclusion

The Nifty weekend rally brought the index to the edge of a key breakout zone — but not through it yet. The red weekly candle signals hesitation, not reversal. The broader trend remains intact, and unless 24,200 is breached, the bulls still hold the edge.

The next move will depend on Monday’s follow-through. Until then, prepare for consolidation, stay selective, and let the breakout confirm itself.

Stocks in News

Vedanta – ₹80,000 Cr Investment in Northeast

What happened:
Vedanta’s Chairman announced a massive ₹80,000 crore investment plan across six Northeastern states. The capital will be deployed in minerals, energy, power transmission, and tech infrastructure.

Why it matters:
This marks one of the largest private sector commitments to India’s Northeast — a region with untapped resource potential. The move aligns with the Centre’s development push and gives Vedanta strategic access to critical minerals and regional energy grids.

Impacted Stock:
Vedanta Ltd

• Long-term positive, especially for its power and resources divisions
• May aid diversification beyond traditional mining operations

Forward View:
Investors should track project-specific announcements. Execution clarity and regulatory progress will determine how the market prices in this capex.

Adani Group – ₹1 Lakh Cr Commitment to Northeast

What happened:
At the Rising Northeast Summit, Gautam Adani committed to investing ₹1 lakh crore over the next 10 years in the region. The focus will be on infrastructure, logistics, renewable energy, and employment generation.

Why it matters:
The Adani Group is positioning itself at the centre of India’s Northeast growth story. This helps expand their logistics and renewables footprint, especially near key international trade corridors.

Impacted Stocks:
Adani Ports, Adani Green, Adani Energy Solutions

• Infrastructure-focused entities stand to benefit the most
• Could unlock new revenue verticals in underserved markets

Forward View:
Watch for ground-level updates. Large announcements are common, but market rewards execution and cash flow visibility.

India–US Trade Deal: Govt Contracts Open to Foreign Bids

What happened:
India may soon allow US and other foreign firms to bid for over $50 billion worth of federal contracts, as part of a bilateral trade agreement under negotiation.

Why it matters:
This would mark a significant shift in India’s public procurement policy, opening sectors like infrastructure, energy, and defence to foreign players. In return, Indian companies could access US procurement markets.

Impacted Stocks:

• L&T, BEL, HAL, RailTel may face increased competition
• Global MNCs with Indian subsidiaries could emerge as new challengers

Forward View:
While good for transparency and competitiveness, this could pressure margins in sectors that have long relied on domestic bidding dominance. Policy rollout will be phased, so impact will be gradual.

Scoda Tubes IPO – Price Band Announced

What happened:
Scoda Tubes set its IPO price band at ₹130-140 for a ₹220 crore issue. The company manufactures stainless-steel tubes and pipes used across sectors like pharma, food, and heavy industries.

Why it matters:
The company caters to a wide client base and is expected to ride on capex tailwinds in manufacturing and infrastructure.

Impacted Stock:
IPO Watch – Scoda Tubes

• GMP trends and institutional interest will drive initial sentiment

Forward View:
Keep an eye on peer valuation, order book strength, and margin profiles. IPO analysis coming up separately.

Read Full Analysis: Scoda Tubes IPO: Stainless Steel Growth or Overhyped Alloy?

IPO GMP Update: Belrise Leads as Sentiment Holds Ahead of Listings

This week’s IPO market continued to show solid momentum, with Belrise Industries and Borana Weaves closing on a strong note, while upcoming issues like Scoda Tubes and Aegis Vopak Terminals show steady grey market activity.

Mainboard IPOs – GMP Snapshot

IPO Name	Price (₹)	GMP (₹)	Est. Listing Price (₹)	Est. Gain (%)	Status
Belrise Industries	90	23	113	25.56%	Closed
Borana Weaves	216	32	248	14.81%	Closed
Scoda Tubes	140	16	156	11.43%	Upcoming
Aegis Vopak Terminals	235	15	250	6.38%	Upcoming
Leela Hotels	435	20	455	4.6%	Upcoming
Prostarm Info Systems	105	0	105	0%	Upcoming

Commentary & Key Takeaways

• Belrise Industries IPO saw exceptional demand (43.14× subscription) and continues to hold the highest GMP at ₹23, suggesting a strong listing pop is expected on May 28.
• Borana Weaves GMP remains healthy at ₹32, with a 14.8% expected gain — indicating continued interest in SME IPOs backed by strong fundamentals.
• Scoda Tubes and Aegis Vopak Terminals are seeing consistent grey market action. GMPs of ₹16 and ₹15 respectively reflect moderate interest and reasonable listing gains.
• Leela Hotels IPO, despite its large size, is showing limited GMP movement, which may reflect cautious optimism amid valuation concerns.
• Prostarm Info Systems is currently flat in the grey market. Market sentiment closer to closing will decide its momentum.

⚠️ Note: GMP (Grey Market Premium) is unofficial and speculative. It should be used as a reference only, not as a substitute for sound fundamental analysis.

Technical Radar: Fusion Finance – Morning Star Hints at Reversal

Fusion Finance has formed a classic Morning Star candlestick pattern on the daily chart — a textbook bullish reversal signal that suggests the recent pullback may be over. The formation has appeared near a short-term support zone and is backed by price structure and volume action that validate a possible trend shift.

Pattern Analysis: Morning Star Setup

This three-candle formation typically marks the end of a downtrend:

• Candle 1: A large bearish candle reflects sustained selling pressure.
• Candle 2: A small-bodied candle signals indecision — often at or near a support zone.
• Candle 3: A strong bullish candle closing above the midpoint of the first — confirming buyer strength.

In Fusion Finance’s case, this pattern has formed around ₹167–₹169, aligning with the 9-day EMA, which has consistently acted as dynamic support.

Key Technical Levels

Level Type	Price (₹)	Comment
Immediate Resistance	₹185	Minor supply zone; short-term hurdle
Major Resistance	₹225	Prior breakdown level + gap resistance
Support Zone	₹166–₹169	EMA + Morning Star base
Breakout Confirmation	₹185+	Above this, momentum could accelerate to ₹200–225

Indicators & Price Structure

• 9-day EMA: Price has held firmly above this level, reinforcing support strength.
• Volume: Slightly increased on the bullish confirmation candle — initial sign of accumulation.
• Trend Structure: Higher highs and higher lows in the short term — a bullish reversal attempt is underway.

Short-Term Outlook (1–3 Weeks)

• If the stock sustains above ₹175, it could test ₹185 quickly, with potential to extend toward ₹200+.
• A decisive move above ₹185, backed by volume, would strengthen the bullish setup and open room toward ₹225.
• On the downside, a fall below ₹166 would invalidate the pattern and shift short-term bias back to bearish.

Strategy Plan

• Aggressive Entry: Buy between ₹177–₹178 with a stop-loss below ₹166; Targets: ₹185 and ₹200.
• Conservative Entry: Wait for a confirmed breakout above ₹185, then enter on a pullback with volume confirmation.

Conclusion

Fusion Finance is shaping up as a potential short-term breakout candidate, with a Morning Star reversal adding credibility to the trend shift. The stock is respecting technical levels and attracting buying near its support zone. However, confirmation above ₹185 is essential before chasing higher targets.

This setup suits active traders looking for structured entries with defined risk.

Momentum Pick: IFCI Ltd – Breakout Backed by Record Volume

IFCI Ltd has triggered a high-conviction breakout — combining sharp price action with exceptional volume. On Friday, the stock surged 10.7% to close at ₹55.26, breaking past its recent consolidation zone and establishing short-term momentum potential.

Breakout Snapshot

• Price Action: Cleared the ₹47–₹50 resistance zone with force, turning it into a strong support base.
• Volume: Over 114 million shares traded — the highest in over 12 months — a potential indicator of institutional buying.
• EMA Confluence: Price rebounded sharply from the 9-day EMA (₹47.19), reinforcing trend alignment.

Technical Structure Summary

Parameter	Level / Observation
Breakout Zone	₹47–₹50
Current Price	₹55.26
Support 1	₹47.20 (9-day EMA)
Support 2	₹45 (pre-breakout level)
Immediate Target	₹60 (psychological and structural resistance)
Extended Target	₹66 (prior swing high from early breakdown)
Stop-Loss (Momentum Trade)	₹49 (below breakout + EMA buffer)

Trade Plan for Momentum Traders

• Entry Range: ₹54–₹55.50
• Stop-Loss: ₹49
• Target Range: ₹60–₹66
• Reward-Risk Ratio: Approximately 2.5:1

Conclusion: High-Probability Momentum Setup

IFCI Ltd presents a textbook momentum breakout setup — with a well-defined structure, confirmed volume spike, and favorable risk-reward ratio. With the broader market supporting risk-on trades, this could offer a quick 10–20% upside if the momentum sustains.

That said, position sizing and stop-loss discipline are crucial — the stock has moved fast, and volatility could remain elevated.

Conclusion: Rally Strong, Caution Smarter

The Nifty weekend rally has pushed the index to within striking distance of the 25,000 mark — but it did so while leaving behind signs of hesitation. The weekly red candle near resistance, despite strong participation, suggests that markets may take a breather before the next leg higher.

Still, the Nifty weekend rally signals underlying strength. Sectoral rotation is visible, volumes are holding, and stock-specific momentum — from IFCI Ltd to Fusion Finance — shows that traders are staying active below the index surface.

What happens next week depends on how the market opens on Monday. A breakout above 25,100 can extend the rally sharply, but failure to hold above 24,800 may lead to a short consolidation. Either way, this Nifty weekend rally has laid the groundwork for a pivotal week ahead.

Spot momentum early, manage risk smarter, and stay ahead of the herd — trade with Angel One.

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