RBI Rate Cut, Market Setup & Stocks to Watch Today

Yesterday, Nifty somehow managed to cling to 22,500 while Sensex slipped 380 points — great way to celebrate RBI rate Cut, right?

Heads-up for Mahavir Jayanti:
Thursday, 10 April 2025, is a Trading Holiday. Here’s how it’ll impact you:

Instant withdrawal? Sorry, not happening on 10 April.

📉 Equity and Derivatives: Closed for the day. Back to action on 11 April.

⚖️ Commodity Market: Shut during the morning session, but resumes 5 PM to 11:55 PM.

💸 Fund Withdrawals: Standard requests after 8 AM on 9 April will be processed on 11 April.

What went wrong? Despite the RBI’s second straight rate cut, investors in India just weren’t buying the cheer. Maybe they were too busy watching the international drama unfold.

Because while we were debating repo rates, the U.S. and China were busy turning global trade into a high-stakes poker match. First, China hit back with an 84% tariff on U.S. goods, replying to the earlier 104% U.S. tariff like a Bollywood revenge plot. But just when it looked like World War Trade was escalating, Trump hit pause — suspending tariffs for 90 days… and then casually slapped a 125% tariff on Chinese imports.

Markets didn’t panic — they partied.

Let’s decode what just happened globally, how it could impact Nifty’s next move, and which stocks are setting up for a possible breakout on Friday.

🌪️ Global Markets – And Then Trump Dropped a Bombshell

What went wrong yesterday? Despite the RBI’s second straight rate cut, investors in India weren’t in the mood to cheer. But globally, things just flipped — HARD.

🧨 Trump just paused all tariffs for 90 days, but here’s the catch: he’s now jacked up tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% — and Wall Street loved it (because chaos = opportunity, apparently).

Check this out:

Index	Level	Day Change	% Gain
Dow 30	40,608.40	🔼 +2,962.86	🔼 +7.87%
S&P 500	5,456.90	🔼 +474.13	🔼 +9.52%
Nasdaq Composite	17,125.00	🔼 +1,857.06	🔼 +12.16%

Yes, you read that right — the Nasdaq is up 12% in one day. The last time tech rallied this hard, Steve Jobs was still doing keynote presentations.

📈 Europe is set to open in green today, hoping to ride the same high. Meanwhile, Asian markets tomorrow will be the real mood test before India reopens.

🔮 Nifty’s Outlook – Gap Up, Gear Up?

Nifty closed at 22,399 on Tuesday, but Thursday is bringing gifts—literally.

Thanks to Trump’s 90-day tariff pause and a mind-blowing 125% hike on China, global markets threw a party last night. Dow Jones surged nearly 3,000 points, and the Nasdaq jumped over 12%. And the ripple effect? GIFT Nifty is up 725 points, currently trading near 23,125—signaling a massive gap-up opening on Friday.

Add the RBI’s rate cut to this bullish recipe, and we might just be entering a mini bull run. If momentum holds, Nifty could not only fill the recent gap but even march towards 22,866 and beyond.

This isn’t just a dead-cat bounce. With strong global cues and domestic support, the mood has flipped from “nervous” to “let’s go!”

In short: Less “Will it break?” and more “How high can it run?”

📰 News & Related Stocks

🔍 Stock in Focus

📉 RBI Targets Gold Loan NBFCs

The RBI turned heads during its policy meeting—not just with the rate cut, but with a curveball aimed at gold loan companies. It announced upcoming prudential norms for gold loans, sparking an immediate sell-off:

Why the panic? Tighter regulations may reduce loan-to-value ratios and impact gold-backed lending models. With no clarity yet, this space is officially in “wait and worry” mode.

📉 RBI Cuts FY26 GDP Forecast to 6.5%

The central bank also slashed India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.5% for FY26, citing global volatility and balanced risks. This tempered the excitement of the rate cut, especially since rate-sensitive sectors like banks and realty didn’t react positively.

Keep an eye on:

• HDFC Bank
• ICICI Bank
• Godrej Properties
• Sobha Ltd.

All could remain muted unless macro triggers improve.

⚠️ Flipkart Fined ₹1.06 Cr by IRDAI

Regulatory heat turned up on Flipkart, as IRDAI imposed a ₹1.06 crore fine for violations of insurance e-commerce and corporate agent norms. The company sold a high number of policies using only one specified person—a big no-no.

This isn’t just about Flipkart—investors should also track:

• PB Fintech (Policy-bazaar)
• Paytm (One97)

Both operate in digital insurance, and any tightening of norms could bite.

💰 India’s Forex Reserves Hit $676.3 Billion

India now holds a record-high $676.3 billion in forex reserves, providing 11 months of import cover, according to RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra. A big boost to macro stability.

Winners in this macro shift:

• PSU banks with forex desks (SBI, BoB)
• Rupee-sensitive sectors like auto, pharma, and oil marketing

🚆 ₹4,800 Cr Infra Push Approved by Cabinet

Green light for infrastructure! The Cabinet cleared:

• ₹1,332 Cr railway line doubling (Tamil Nadu & Andhra Pradesh)
• ₹1,878 Cr for the 6-lane Zirakpur bypass
• ₹1,600 Cr irrigation modernisation plan

Infra stocks to watch:

• Titagarh Rail Systems Ltd., Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd. (RVNL), IRCON

Great news if you like steady cash flows and tender-based growth.

📲 UPI Limit Enhanced for P2M Payments

The RBI allowed NPCI to increase UPI transaction limits for P2M (person-to-merchant) transactions. That’s a thumbs-up for the cashless economy—and a boost to companies leading the charge.

Stocks in focus:

• Paytm (One97)
• Axis Bank, SBI, Yes Bank — with strong UPI throughput

This could be a strong long-term structural theme, even if markets ignore it for now.

📍 Key Takeaway:
Despite a rate cut, RBI’s policy day ended up being more about caution than cheer. But smart investors will notice where opportunity quietly hides—in infra, UPI, PSU banks, and maybe even oversold gold NBFCs once the dust settles.

📊 Stocks in Technical Radar

🚀 Volume Shocker: Route Mobile

Route Mobile caught fire with volume surging past 545K and the stock rallying +5.63% to ₹975.40. This isn’t your regular bounce — it’s a potential trend reversal after a long downfall.

• Resistance to watch: ₹1,000 – a strong psychological and technical barrier.
• Support zone: ₹935 – recent consolidation level.
• Entry Idea: Aggressive traders can consider entering above ₹980 with tight stop-loss at ₹935.
• Target: ₹1,040 in the short term if momentum continues.

But hey, don’t YOLO just because one candle looks strong. If it breaks ₹1,000 with volume, only then it’s time to raise the stakes.

🔼 Intraday Breakout: ICICI Bank

ICICI Bank is forming a textbook ascending triangle — higher lows, flat top, pressure building like a soda bottle in summer.

• Immediate breakout level: ₹1,310
• Major resistance: ₹1,325 (post-breakout hurdle), then ₹1,380 (ATH)
• Support zone: ₹1,290 – lower trendline and recent base
• Entry Idea: Buy above ₹1,310 with SL at ₹1,288
• Target: ₹1,345-₹1,360 in the short term

If the breakout fails, it’s a fakeout trap. So wait for confirmation — volume is key here.

What Should You Do Now?

With the trading holiday on April 10, markets will hit pause — and so should you. Take the time to:

• Re-evaluate your watchlist: Sectors like FMCG are holding up; tech and PSU banks are under pressure.
• Prepare for Friday: Keep an eye on global cues tomorrow that could set the mood for Friday’s open.
• Check fund withdrawals: If you missed the 8 AM deadline on April 9, relax. Your funds will arrive on April 11.

📊 Technical setups look interesting for stocks like ICICI Bank and Route Mobile — just in time to plot your entry points.

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