Profit Booking or Panic? Markets Hit the Brakes

After Monday’s ceasefire-fueled fireworks, Tuesday felt like a cold splash of reality. The markets snapped out of euphoria mode with a sharp market correction after rally highs. The Nifty plunged 336 points, while the Sensex tanked 1,245 points, with IT stocks taking the hardest hit. Infosys alone lost nearly 3.6%, dragging the entire tech pack down with it.

Interestingly, while frontline indices were bleeding, the smallcap index quietly gained 0.99%, and defence stocks like Bharat Electronics managed to rally—offering a few bright spots amid the red sea.

Was this just profit booking after a massive run-up? Or the first sign that markets may have overreacted to the ceasefire?

Let’s decode the signals—and prep for what’s next.

What the Chart Whispered Today – Nifty Analysis

Nifty tried to act like Virat Kohli on a confident cover drive—but ended up edging it straight to the slips.

The index opened with optimism, danced above 24,850, and even teased the bulls with a breakout. But by the closing bell, it was brutally rejected—dropping 346 points to finish at 24,578. That’s not a breakout. That’s a fake-out in full makeup.

The Real Message from the Charts?

• 24,850–24,900 was the resistance wall—one that Nifty has failed at before (hello, September 2023).
• Today’s candle? A long upper wick and a full-bodied red—a textbook signal of a failed breakout attempt.
• Volume was underwhelming, making this push feel more like a limp handshake than a power move.

If the Slide Continues, Where Next?

Zone	Why It Matters
24,100	Previous resistance → possible support
23,800–23,900	Bullish tent zone, often defended
23,200–23,500	⚠️ Open gap from April – could attract price

And let’s be honest—markets hate gaps. If momentum stays weak, that April lift-off zone might just pull the index back like gravity.

What to Watch on Today

• Below 24,400? Trouble. A fast drop to 24,100–23,950 can’t be ruled out.
• Above 24,850 again—with volume? Bulls are back. Otherwise, it’s just noise.

The Takeaway:

The uptrend isn’t broken… but the seatbelt sign is ON.
Don’t fall for “dip hai bro, let’s buy” FOMO unless there’s real strength above 24,850. Until then, trail your stops, guard your gains, and maybe sip chai instead of chasing fake green.

News & Stocks in Focus

💊 1. Lupin’s Secret Drug May Be a Game-Changer

Something big is brewing at Lupin. According to Axis Capital, a new drug—still unnamed for competitive reasons—could contribute 25% or more to the company’s FY26 earnings. And here’s the kicker: Lupin is expected to be the only generic supplier for most of the year.

That means monopoly-style margins, zero price wars, and possibly a major EPS jump—provided the USFDA doesn’t throw a wrench in the plan.

Why it matters:
In a highly competitive US generics market, first-mover (and solo-mover) advantage is rare. This could lead to stock re-rating and renewed FII interest, especially as pharma looks defensive amid tech weakness.

💡 Impacted Stock:
✔️ Lupin Ltd – eyes will be on every USFDA update and earnings guidance.

🔩 2. Tata Steel’s UK Arm May Finally Stop Bleeding

After years of dragging down consolidated performance, Tata Steel’s UK operations may finally turn EBITDA positive in FY26. The company is spending ₹15,000 crore a year in capex, with 80% targeted within India—a move that puts its focus where the margins are.

The UK transition is being supported by the government’s green steel initiatives, helping Tata Steel cut losses while scaling in India’s growing infrastructure and auto steel markets.

Why it matters:
A profitable UK unit could lift sentiment, but the real story is about India-focused capital efficiency and high ROCE growth at home.

💡 Impacted Stock:
✔️ Tata Steel – potential upside if UK surprise turns real + Indian demand stays strong.

🧱 3. JSW One Becomes Unicorn, Quietly Shifts Startup Narrative

While the startup world is quieter this year, JSW One Platforms just became 2025’s third unicorn, raising ₹340 crore (~$41M). This B2B e-commerce platform caters to the construction and manufacturing sectors with steel, cement, and more.

Unlike most consumer-focused unicorns, JSW One runs on industrial logic, supply chain depth, and real demand. It may not trend on Twitter—but it might catch the eye of long-only institutional investors.

Why it matters:
It’s a signal that industrial tech is gaining respect in India’s private market. With a parent like JSW Group and strong order books, this could be a future IPO candidate.

💡 Impacted Stocks:
✔️ JSW Steel (indirectly) – reflects group’s ecosystem strength and diversification.

🛒 4. Zepto Attracts ₹800 Cr in Pre-IPO Boost from Motilal Oswal, Raamdeo Agrawal

The 10-minute grocery unicorn Zepto has secured a fresh $100M investment from Motilal Oswal and Raamdeo Agrawal-led funds. Another $250M is reportedly in the works—all aimed at boosting Indian ownership before its IPO.

SEBI norms require specific Indian ownership thresholds for IPOs via certain listing routes. Zepto’s cap table is being recalibrated to fit the bill.

Why it matters:
This move signals revival in India’s startup IPO ambitions, and that even aggressive business models like quick commerce can attract big-name capital when governance aligns.

💡 Impacted Stocks:
None directly listed, but sentiment positive for India’s tech IPO pipeline—watch players like Zomato and Delhivery for sympathy moves.

🏦 5. LIC Quietly Ups Its Stake in Bank of India

Over the past two years, LIC increased its holding in Bank of India to 8.38%—up from 6.35% in September 2021. The move was slow, subtle, and strategic.

Why? BoI has shown improving profitability, lower NPAs, and better credit growth. Plus, PSU banks in general are benefitting from government-led infra spending and robust retail loan growth.

Why it matters:
When India’s biggest institutional investor goes overweight on a PSU bank, the rest of the market tends to take notice.

💡 Impacted Stock:
✔️ Bank of India – bullish signal for the stock and PSU bank basket (watch PNB, Canara, Union Bank too).

Stock in Technical Radar – KPIT Technologies Ltd

While the index was out here crashing like a Windows 98 machine, KPIT Technologies was casually breaking out like it hadn’t gotten the memo.

Amid this market correction after rally, KPIT said, “I’m built different,” and surged past its ₹1,315–1,316 resistance zone—a level that had held it hostage for weeks. Today’s close wasn’t just green—it was a breakout confirmed with volume. Not FOMO-fuelled madness, but clean, decisive, and backed by price action logic.

Why This Chart Stands Out:

• Breakout Confirmed: Finally broke the ₹1,315–1,316 resistance after several failed attempts.
• Volume Backed: 1.31M shares traded today—well above average. Not retail noise—looks like smart money interest.
• Short-Term Momentum: Strong, but not overheated yet. RSI worth watching.

Intraday Setup:

Bias	Entry Zone	Target	Stop-loss / Reversal
Bullish	₹1,315–₹1,320	₹1,370 → ₹1,400	₹1,290
Bearish Reversal	Below ₹1,290	₹1,265 (scalp zone)	Avoid longs below ₹1,290

💬 Pro Tip: If Nifty opens weak again, and KPIT also slips below ₹1,290, better to let it go and avoid catching a falling knife. But if it dips to the ₹1,315–₹1,320 zone and holds? That’s your cue.

Strategy Note:

• Breakout Traders: This is your clean textbook setup. Don’t mess it up with FOMO entries—wait for the right retest.
• Investors: Hold your horses. A close above ₹1,415 is needed before you dream of ₹1,600 and beyond.
• Chai-watchers: It’s okay to observe and sip. Not every candle is worth chasing.

Small-Cap Stock of the Day – EPL Ltd (₹232)

In a market that’s lately been throwing tantrums, sometimes it pays to look past the buzz and find companies with something more stable: global demand and repeat consumption. That’s where EPL Ltd steps in—quietly packaging your toothpaste, lip balm, and maybe even your sunscreen.

Formerly known as Essel Propack, EPL is now under the wing of Blackstone, one of the most respected names in global private equity. That alone gives it a halo. But look deeper, and the fundamentals justify the interest.

Why EPL Deserves a Look:

• World’s Largest in Laminated Tubes:
  With an annual capacity of 8 billion tubes, EPL serves top brands across personal care, pharma, food, and cosmetics. Think of it as a B2B moat in your daily routine.
• Strong Global Footprint:
  Operations span USA, Europe, South America, Asia, and MENA—not just export, but local manufacturing. That’s key in the “China+1” world.
• Backed by Blackstone:
  Since 2019, the PE giant has pushed EPL to focus on margin expansion, customer stickiness, and operational efficiency. And it’s working.

Key Financial Snapshot:

Metric	Value	Interpretation
ROCE / ROE	17.5% / 16.3%	Efficient, above-average return profile
Debt-to-Equity	0.34	Comfortable leverage
Operating Margin (OPM)	19.8%	Excellent for a manufacturing business
EPS Growth (3Y CAGR)	18.6%	Consistent growth under private equity
Dividend Yield	1.92%	Adds income cushion
P/E vs Industry P/E	20.5 vs 23.0	Reasonably priced with upside potential
Market Cap to Sales	1.76	Healthy valuation, not overheated

The Bigger Picture:

In a consumption-led recovery, packaging isn’t optional—it’s critical. And EPL, with its global presence and recession-resistant portfolio (who stops brushing their teeth in a downturn?), stands out.

Add in Blackstone’s capital discipline, improving margins, and a long runway in FMCG + pharma growth, and this smallcap could become a quiet compounder over the next few years.

Final Thought

After every rally comes that one day where the market pauses, looks in the mirror, and asks—“Did I go too far?”
Tuesday was that moment.

The market correction after rally wasn’t just about profit booking—it was a reality check. It reminded traders that breakouts need backing, not just excitement. Nifty’s rejection at 24,850 wasn’t subtle—it was loud, high-volume rejection with a message: Don’t chase without confirmation.

At the same time, pockets of strength are quietly emerging—like KPIT with its clean breakout, or EPL Ltd, building a global packaging powerhouse beneath the radar. In a market this volatile, it’s not about doing more trades—it’s about doing the right trades.

And that’s where smart tools come in.

With Angel One’s upgraded F&O trading platform, you can track volume spikes, breakout levels, institutional flows, and technical setups—all in real time.
📊 Whether you’re hunting momentum or protecting capital, having clarity in chaos makes all the difference.

Because markets will correct. They’ll bounce. They’ll fake out. But with the right insights, you don’t just react—you anticipate.

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