Ceasefire Fades, Tensions Return: Nifty Hits Resistance Wall Again

Introduction

The market opened with optimism as news of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel pushed global sentiment higher. Indian equities followed suit with a noticeable gap-up opening, led by strong moves in Bank Nifty and Smallcaps. However, that positivity was short-lived. Reports of rising tensions once again between the two countries quickly erased confidence, resulting in another failed attempt by Nifty to break through its crucial resistance zone of 25,100.

The NIFTY 50 closed the day at 25,073.95 (+102.05 / +0.41%), unable to hold its intraday gains. Sensex added 264.15 points, while Bank Nifty led with a 0.74% rise, and Smallcap indices continued their climb, reflecting select stock-specific strength. Nifty IT, however, remained flat, slightly in the red.

This price action reinforces the ongoing market structure, where “Nifty resistance” near 25,100 acts as a ceiling. Despite multiple intraday attempts, the index continues to face profit booking and lacks the momentum needed for a clean breakout. This suggests markets are still digesting macro risks, especially around global geopolitics and oil prices.

What You’ll Get in This Newsletter
In today’s issue, we break down:

Technical Outlook on Nifty – Why this resistance matters and what could trigger a breakout or breakdown
Stock on Technical Radar – High-probability setups you can track or trade this week
Top News & Impacted Stocks – From Adani’s green hydrogen move to changes in Nifty 50 composition
High Risk–High Reward Smallcap of the Day – A closer look at Chennai Petroleum amid crude supply disruption fears
IPO Tracker – Updated GMPs, open-close dates, and expected listing gains for both Mainboard & SME issues
Expert Macro Lens – What smart money is doing in this rangebound market

From veterans to first-time investors, this newsletter gives you market-tested insights, actionable trade setups, and updates that help you prepare, not just react.

Nifty 50 – Technical Outlook (Daily Timeframe)

Current Price: ₹25,044.35
Change: +0.29%|Volume: 450.19M|EMA (9): ₹24,819.24

1. Structure Overview – Another Clash with Nifty Resistance

For weeks, Nifty has been coiling within a narrow consolidation band between ₹24,450 and ₹25,100, building a classic base after its sharp rally from below 22,000. The setup reflects a healthy digestion phase, where buyers and sellers are locked in a tight range, watching for cues. However, Friday’s move — a modest close above ₹25,100 — once again brings the Nifty resistance into the spotlight.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Immediate Resistance: ₹25,106 (recent swing highs and key resistance)
• Immediate Support: ₹24,452–₹24,462
• Deeper Support: ₹23,800–₹23,850

While the index did marginally peek above the resistance, the move lacked volume conviction — indicating that Nifty resistance remains a strong hurdle unless further buying steps in.

2. Volume & Market Breadth – Breakout, or False Start?

Although the price tested fresh highs, volume didn’t rise meaningfully, pointing to a possible false breakout or an early breakout leg in development. Notably, this type of divergence between price and volume at Nifty resistance is a textbook sign of cautious smart money.

Moreover, market breadth wasn’t broad-based — sectors like Financials and Energy led the gains, while others lagged. This selective strength implies that the index’s move might need wider participation to sustain.

3. Momentum and EMA Dynamics – Still Intact

Despite the hesitancy at Nifty resistance, the momentum remains intact. The index is comfortably holding above its 9-day EMA — and importantly, every dip toward it has seen fresh buying.

• No bearish divergence has emerged between price and EMA slope.
• Pullbacks are shallow, confirming the presence of strong hands in the market.

This alignment of price above short-term EMA is a bullish trait — typically preceding sustained breakout attempts.

4. Target Projections – If Breakout is Confirmed

If the index manages a clean breakout above ₹25,106, we can estimate the target using the measured move logic:

• Height of Range: ₹650 (₹25,100 – ₹24,450)
• Breakout Target: ₹25,100 + ₹650 = ₹25,750
• Secondary Resistance: ₹26,200–₹26,266 (historical highs)

Thus, if Nifty clears this resistance wall, expect a potential two-leg move:

• Short-Term Target: ₹25,750
• Medium-Term Target: ₹26,200–₹26,266

5. Invalidations – When to Step Back

Every breakout must be tested. If Nifty fails to sustain above ₹25,100 and slips below:

• ₹24,800 (EMA): Cautionary signal
• ₹24,450: Clear breakdown = failed breakout

In that case, expect a fast move toward ₹23,800 — the prior breakout zone — as the index retreats from Nifty resistance.

6. Scenario-Based Trade Plan

Scenario	Action	Trigger	Stop Loss	Target
Confirmed Breakout	Buy on breakout retest	Above ₹25,106	₹24,800	₹25,750 → ₹26,250
Failed Breakout	Short below support	Below ₹24,450	₹24,800	₹23,850

Summary: What’s the Play Near Nifty Resistance?

• The index is testing Nifty resistance at ₹25,100 once again — but without strong confirmation.
• Watch for volume expansion and broader participation.
• Momentum remains positive, but signs of hesitation are growing.
• Risk is moderate; upside potential exists, but entry must be conditional.

👉 Final Tip: Keep focus on sector leaders like Banks, Autos, and Infra stocks. If they push, the Nifty will likely follow — and Nifty resistance might finally break cleanly.

News and Stock Impact: Macro Reforms Meet Market Tensions

Even as Nifty resistance continues to frustrate breakout attempts, India’s economic engine is quietly gaining strength through strategic reforms, policy initiatives, and sector-specific momentum. Here’s a quick look at the major headlines that could shape the coming week — and their likely impact on stock themes.

🚧 GST 2.0 & Infra Push: A Long-Term Catalyst Amid Market Jitters

Nilesh Shah of Envision Capital believes India’s next growth spurt could be powered by GST 2.0, targeted infrastructure spending, and a renewed push towards formalization. He highlighted that inflation remains in check, and easing geopolitical tensions could revive bullish sentiment — provided Nifty resistance is eventually taken out.

Stock Watch: Infra names like L&T, KNR Construction, and Cement majors (Ultratech, Dalmia) stand to benefit from this capex-heavy agenda.

🌍 Export Policy Evolution: SEZs No Longer the Only Gateways

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman made a major announcement — exporters no longer need to operate from SEZs. This aligns with the government’s cluster-based “districts as export hubs” model.

Exports surged to a record $825 billion, well above the global average, driven by sectors like electronics, pharmaceuticals, and food processing. However, despite this tailwind, the market remains cautious near Nifty resistance, seeking clarity from global cues.

Stock Watch: Dixon Tech, Amber Enterprises, Divi’s Labs, and Avenue Supermarts (logistics play) could be indirect beneficiaries.

📈 S&P Ups India’s GDP Forecast to 6.5% for FY26

S&P Global raised India’s FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.5%, citing macro stability, policy tailwinds, and structural demand resilience. However, this upgrade hasn’t yet translated into broader market momentum due to the looming Nifty resistance zone.

Stock Watch: Sentimentally positive for PSU Banks, NBFCs, and core consumption stories.

⚡️ Electric Vehicle Scheme Portal Now Open

India’s EV ambitions got a push with the launch of an official portal for global players to apply under the new EV manufacturing scheme. Although Tesla has shown limited interest in local production, the policy opens the door for other global automakers to participate.

Stock Watch: Positive for Tata Motors, M&M, Exide, Ather supplier ecosystem, and EV infrastructure players like Servotech and Greaves Cotton.

🧃 Cipla Health Expands Smart Beverage Lineup

Cipla Health has entered the smart hydration segment with Prolyte ElectroShot, combining fruit juice with electrolytes. This marks Cipla’s push into FMCG-style wellness, riding on India’s rising health consciousness.

Stock Watch: May support re-rating of Cipla, with spillover sentiment to peers like Abbott India, Glenmark Life, and emerging FMCG-wellness names.

📦 Glottis & Amanta Get SEBI Nod for IPOs

The capital markets pipeline remains strong with Glottis (logistics) and Amanta Healthcare (pharma) receiving approval to go public. Both companies had earlier withdrawn their IPO plans but have now refiled.

This indicates increasing promoter confidence, even as Nifty resistance continues to keep benchmark indices range-bound. It’s a sign that sectoral stories might outperform broader indices.

Stock Watch: Watch for grey market premium trends in IPOs. Recent SME issues like Suntech Infra and Rama Telecom show that appetite for fresh equity remains alive.

Takeaway for Readers

This week’s newsletter gives you:

• A macro-to-micro map of India’s policy-driven growth
• Sector impact from export, infra, and EV reforms
• Market-ready signals from IPO action and stock positioning
• A reality check on how Nifty resistance remains the key wall to watch — and what must happen to break through it

Stay tuned as we track whether strong reforms can translate into a confirmed breakout on the charts.

Technical Radder: LTF Shows Structural Strength Amid Nifty Resistance

While Nifty resistance has kept the broader markets in check, select midcap stocks are signaling the start of independent trends. LTF is one such candidate, having just completed a multi-year Cup and Handle breakout — a high-probability, long-term bullish formation favored by institutional investors.

Understanding the Setup: What is a Cup and Handle Breakout?

The Cup and Handle pattern is a classic bullish continuation formation that typically appears after a long consolidation or base-building phase. It reflects a strong underlying accumulation, where smart money gradually absorbs supply before triggering a breakout.

In LTF’s case, this is a 7-year base structure that developed from 2017 through 2025.

• The Cup: Formed between 2018 and 2021, with prices bottoming near ₹55. The cup reflects a gradual U-shaped recovery and long-term base building.
• The Handle: A sideways to slightly downward sloping consolidation that formed between ₹145 and ₹200 over 2024–2025. This portion typically serves as the final shakeout before the breakout.
• Breakout Zone: The long-term resistance near ₹198–₹200 has finally been cleared with a strong, conviction-driven candle that closed above resistance at ₹200.06. This confirms the breakout.

This pattern is reliable due to its timeframe and structure, suggesting that the breakout is not just technical noise but a long-term trend reversal.

Technical Confirmation and Volume Analysis

• Price vs. EMA: The stock is trading well above its 9-day EMA (₹187.56), indicating short-term momentum aligns with the breakout.
• Breakout Candle: It is a wide-bodied bullish candle with no upper wick — showing that there was little to no selling pressure even at the highs.
• Volume Spike: The breakout was accompanied by a volume surge (17.93 million shares), significantly above its 20-day average. This is a strong sign that institutional interest is driving the move, not just retail speculation.

Target Estimation: Measured Move Calculation

Using the height of the cup:

• Cup depth = ₹200 (neckline) − ₹55 (base) = ₹145
• Projected price target = ₹200 + ₹145 = ₹345

The price target zone is defined between ₹320–₹345, giving traders and investors a clear long-term roadmap. This is a positional trade setup expected to play out over 6–12 months, provided the broader markets remain constructive.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

• Intermediate Resistance Zones: ₹215–₹220, ₹250, and ₹275 — These levels may act as short-term hurdles where partial profit booking can be considered.
• Support Zones: ₹187–₹193 (breakout + 9 EMA), and ₹174 (handle base). A close below these would signal weakening momentum.

Suggested Trading Strategy

Entry Zone	Stop Loss	Target Levels	Risk-Reward Ratio
₹198 – ₹202	₹187	₹250 / ₹275 / ₹345	1:2 to 1:4

• Consider scaling out at intermediate resistances.
• If you missed the initial breakout, re-entry on a retest of the ₹198–₹200 zone with a tight stop-loss is viable.

Final View

With the broader markets facing Nifty resistance amid geopolitical uncertainty, setups like LTF offer a compelling contrast. This is not a short-term bounce or a speculative spike — it’s a structurally sound breakout from a long accumulation zone, backed by strong price action and volume.

This setup is ideal for positional traders or long-term investors looking to ride a high-conviction trend with clearly defined risk and multi-layered upside targets. If market breadth expands or sector rotation supports, LTF could emerge as a standout performer even as the Nifty struggles to break its ceiling.

IPO Tracker – Primary Market Buzz

With markets hovering near Nifty resistance, investor appetite in the IPO market remains robust—especially in SME listings. Here’s a quick snapshot of the current and upcoming IPOs across segments.

Mainboard IPOs

Name	GMP	Price (₹)	Open	Close	Listing
HDB Financial	₹73 (9.86%)	₹740	25-Jun	27-Jun	2-Jul
Sambhv Steel Tubes	₹7 (8.54%)	₹82	25-Jun	27-Jun	2-Jul
Kalpataru Projects	₹9 (2.17%)	₹414	24-Jun	26-Jun	1-Jul
Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases	₹11 (2.75%)	₹400	24-Jun	26-Jun	1-Jul
Globe Civil Projects	₹15 (21.13%)	₹71	24-Jun	26-Jun	1-Jul
Indogulf Cropsciences	₹11 (9.91%)	₹111	26-Jun	30-Jun	3-Jul

SME IPOs

Name	GMP	Price (₹)	Open	Close	Listing
Adcounty Media India	₹20 (23.53%)	₹85	27-Jun	1-Jul	4-Jul
Suntech Infra Solutions	₹23 (26.74%)	₹86	25-Jun	27-Jun	2-Jul
Supertech EV	₹5 (5.43%)	₹92	25-Jun	27-Jun	2-Jul
Rama Telecom	₹4 (5.88%)	₹68	25-Jun	27-Jun	2-Jul
Abram Food	₹9 (9.18%)	₹98	24-Jun	26-Jun	1-Jul
Icon Facilitators	₹11 (12.09%)	₹91	24-Jun	26-Jun	1-Jul
AJC Jewel	₹9 (9.47%)	₹95	23-Jun	26-Jun	1-Jul
Shri Hare-Krishna Sponge Iron	₹– (0.00%)	₹59	24-Jun	26-Jun	1-Jul
Marc Loire	₹– (0.00%)	₹100	30-Jun	2-Jul	7-Jul
Pushpa Jewellers	₹– (0.00%)	₹147	30-Jun	2-Jul	7-Jul
Cedaar Textile	₹– (0.00%)	₹140	30-Jun	2-Jul	7-Jul
Neetu Yoshi	₹– (0.00%)	₹75	27-Jun	1-Jul	4-Jul
Valencia India	₹– (0.00%)	₹110	26-Jun	30-Jun	3-Jul
PRO FX Tech	₹– (0.00%)	₹87	26-Jun	30-Jun	3-Jul
Ace Alpha Tech	₹– (0.00%)	₹69	26-Jun	30-Jun	3-Jul
Moving Media Entertainment	₹5 (7.14%)	₹70	26-Jun	30-Jun	3-Jul

Editor’s Note: Several SME IPOs are showing strong grey market premiums (GMP), but as always, caution is advised. Monitor subscription levels closely, especially with Nifty resistance acting as a psychological drag on broad market enthusiasm.

Smallcap of the Day: Satia Industries Ltd

CMP: ₹87.70 | Market Cap: ₹877 Cr

With large caps battling Nifty resistance, selective smallcaps like Satia Industries Ltd are showing signs of steady performance and value re-rating potential — particularly for patient investors eyeing strong fundamentals at attractive valuations.

About the Company

Satia Industries Ltd (SIL), incorporated in 1980, is a diversified player in the writing and printing paper segment. It also operates in agriculture and power cogeneration. What sets it apart is its eco-certified production process and its strong institutional clientele — particularly state textbook boards, ensuring predictable demand.

Key Fundamentals

Metric	Value
P/E Ratio	7.34
Book Value	₹105
ROE (TTM)	12.0%
ROCE	10.4%
Debt to Equity	0.23
Operating Margin	17.9%
Net Profit Margin	12.3%
Price to Book	0.83
Intrinsic Value	₹143

Despite a modest dividend yield of 1.14%, the company’s intrinsic value and financial prudence (zero promoter pledging, solid cash position) make it a solid long-term contender, especially as markets churn near Nifty resistance.

Why It Stands Out

• Undervalued: Trades at a deep discount to intrinsic value and book.
• Low Leverage: D/E at 0.23 with strong interest coverage of 5.16x.
• Margin Strength: OPM at 17.9% — notable for the paper sector.
• Operational Reach: Pan-India dealer network + 3 key branches.

Risks to Watch

• Cyclical nature of the paper industry.
• Exposure to raw material cost fluctuations (e.g., pulp prices).
• Government policy dependency due to textbook orders.

Final Word

In an environment where Nifty resistance is capping broader index gains, Satia Industries offers an attractive smallcap bet driven by fundamental strength, sectoral tailwinds (education reforms, rural demand), and low valuation multiples.

It’s a high-conviction, high-patience play — perfect for value investors building positions below ₹90.

Conclusion: Markets Jittery at Key Juncture as Nifty Faces Resistance

Despite brief optimism after the Iran-Israel ceasefire announcement, escalating tensions once again pulled global risk sentiment into cautious territory. This newsletter underscored how Nifty resistance around the 25,100 zone is proving stubborn — a ceiling the index has tested but failed to decisively clear.

From macro triggers like GST 2.0 and export policy reforms, to sectoral trends in diagnostics, infrastructure, and smallcap breakouts like LTF and Satia Industries — we’ve unpacked it all. Meanwhile, technical analysis of the Nifty 50 and standout stocks like Vodafone Idea offered strategic trading levels for both bulls and bears, depending on how the market reacts around the resistance wall.

What You Gained:

• Clear view of market structure and Nifty resistance level at 25,100
• Actionable technical setups for LTF
• IPO digest covering Mainboard & SME updates with GMP, open-close dates
• Macro trends decoded: EV policy, GST revamp, and rising exports
• High-risk, high-reward picks in Satia Industries
• Smart news-to-stock impact analysis across diagnostics, fintech, and energy

As we enter a critical juncture on the charts, remember — price is the final truth. Watch how Nifty behaves near resistance this week. Breakout? Or another bull trap?

Till then, stay nimble, stay curious.

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