What’s Next for Nifty After RBI’s Surprise Rate Cut?

RBI Plays Santa in June – Nifty Smashes 25,000!

If you thought the RBI was done with surprises, think again. In a shocker move, the central bank pulled out a 50 bps rate cut instead of the usual 25—leaving everyone from economists to chaiwallahs rubbing their eyes in disbelief. And just like that, Nifty after rate cut? Straight to 25,000. Sensex? Up 747 points. Bank Nifty? Partying at a new all-time high. This isn’t just a rally, it’s a full-blown financial fiesta.

So, what triggered this bullish madness? And is this just a one-day adrenaline rush or the beginning of a longer breakout?

In today’s newsletter, we decode it all:

• 🌍 Global cues that added fuel to India’s rally
• 📰 Big business headlines you can’t afford to ignore
• 📊 Stocks that broke charts and those that broke hearts
• 📈 A hot technical pick for the week
• 💡 A risky smallcap with massive potential
• 🎯 And your exact action plan for what to do now

If you’re wondering whether to sit tight or dive in head-first—don’t worry, we’ve got your back (and your trades). Let’s roll into the action!

Market Analysis: Nifty After Rate Cut

Index Overview:

Metric	Value
Index	NIFTY 50
CMP	₹25,003.05
Change	+252.15 (+1.02%)
Volume	335.57M (↑ Strong)

The Nifty celebrated the RBI’s surprise 50 bps rate cut by soaring past the psychological 25,000 mark. This move wasn’t just emotional — it came with volume and technical backing.

Market Structure: Breakout Watch

• Pattern: Horizontal Range Consolidation
• Range:
  • Resistance: ₹25,077–₹25,079
  • Support: ₹24,534–₹24,544
• Demand Zone: ₹24,500–₹24,350 (tested 3+ times in May–June)

Today’s candle tested the upper band of this range with conviction and volume — suggesting institutional participation and a possible range breakout.

Volume & Price Action Confirmation

• Volume Spike: Current up-move is backed by a clear increase in traded volume.
• Strength Indicator: Breakouts with volume expansion are more likely to sustain.
• Market Sentiment: Risk-on, post RBI policy — driven by rate-sensitive sectors (Banking, Auto, Realty).

Key Levels to Watch:

Type	Price Range	Remarks
Resistance 1	₹25,079	Range high – breakout zone
Resistance 2	₹25,500	Measured move (range width) target
Resistance 3	₹26,266	All-Time High
Support 1	₹24,534–₹24,500	Former support, now revalidation zone
Support 2	₹24,350	Demand base – breakdown invalidation

What Next? Pro Trader Scenarios

If Breakout Sustains:

• Expect continuation towards ₹25,500, followed by retesting of ATH at ₹26,266.
• RSI and MACD are likely to remain in bullish territory if volume sustains above average.

If Rejected at ₹25,079:

• Price may revisit ₹24,534–₹24,500 for a base-building attempt.
• Failure to hold ₹24,350 with volume = Short-term trend breakdown.

Expert Outlook: Momentum Awakens

The rate cut acted as a sentiment catalyst, but what’s more important is that Nifty was technically ready. A tight range, a well-tested demand zone, and increasing volume — the trifecta for a breakout.

Keep your eyes on ₹25,080 — a confirmed close above this with good volume could mean a fresh rally leg is beginning.

Risk-managed traders can look for a low-risk entry on a minor dip or intraday confirmation breakout.

Stocks in News

RBI Rate Cut Ignites Bond Market Moves

After the surprise 50 bps rate cut, short-term government bonds rallied while long-term yields stayed muted. Add to that a 100 bps CRR cut, and you get a clear message: the RBI wants liquidity flowing. Experts expect quicker monetary transmission, particularly boosting shorter-duration instruments.

Why it matters:
With the Nifty after rate cut breaking out of a range, this bond market response shows the RBI’s dovish pivot could lift multiple asset classes — equities, short-term bonds, and rate-sensitive sectors.

Impacted Stocks: SBI, HDFC, LIC Housing, PFC, REC
Outlook: Rate-sensitive NBFCs could see cost of funds drop faster than banks, boosting margins in the short term.

RBI Gives Gold Loans a Golden Touch

Gold loan stocks sparkled, rising 2–7%, after the RBI hiked the loan-to-value ratio to 85% for small-ticket loans (under ₹2.5 lakh). Simplified norms also mean less paperwork for lenders. In a falling interest rate environment, gold loan NBFCs could enjoy higher demand without proportionate risk.

Impacted Stocks: Muthoot Finance, Manappuram Finance, IIFL Finance
Outlook: With lower rates and easier norms, these lenders are set to shine — especially in rural and semi-urban demand cycles.

RBI Reviews Foreign Ownership in Banks

The RBI clarified it’s reviewing foreign ownership limits in Indian private sector banks — though no immediate changes are expected. The backdrop: growing foreign interest in Indian banking, from Sumitomo’s Yes Bank stake to Emirates NBD bidding for IDBI Bank.

Impacted Stocks: Yes Bank, IDBI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank
Outlook: Policy clarity could drive rerating. Strategic buyers are circling, and reforms may be on the horizon — just not immediately.

IREDA’s ₹4,500 Cr QIP Offer Hits the Street

IREDA has kicked off its ₹1,500 crore QIP with a green shoe option of ₹3,000 crore, at ₹165.14 per share — a 6.4% discount. This marks one of the largest capital raises in the renewable energy financing space this year.

Impacted Stock: IREDA
Outlook: Dilution near-term, but growth capital could enable larger financing pipeline in the renewables boom.

Gen Z Investors Prefer Crypto Over Stocks?

A WEF report shows that 29% of younger investors find stocks confusing — while only 24% feel that way about crypto. This signals a generational investment pivot that Indian financial players will need to decode fast.

Impacted Space: Digital brokers, Crypto exchanges, Mutual Fund platforms
Outlook: Broking platforms may need to reinvent user education, or risk losing an entire generation to Dogecoin memes.

Central Bank Picks Up Big Insurance Stake

Central Bank of India acquired over 24% in Future Generali’s life and general insurance businesses. This marks a deeper push into bancassurance and diversifying fee income streams.

Impacted Stock: Central Bank of India
Outlook: Positive long-term if cross-selling gains traction. Regulatory greenlights already in — now execution matters.

NSE Launches ESG Ratings Subsidiary

NSE Sustainability Ratings & Analytics Ltd is now officially a Category I ESG Rating Provider (ERP) approved by SEBI. It plans to offer ESG scores, research, and analytics — a much-needed step as ESG becomes mainstream in Indian investing.

Impacted Entities: Listed Companies (especially large caps), NSE
Outlook: Could push listed firms toward better ESG disclosures. Long-term impact will be seen in fund flows and valuation premiums for ESG leaders.

Stocks on Technical Radar

REC Ltd – Charging Up After Breakout

As the Nifty after rate cut roars above 25,000, REC Ltd has quietly powered through a textbook bullish breakout. It’s not just a random spike — it’s a calculated move emerging from a solid base and a maturing Elliott Wave structure.

Chart Context: Structure + Sentiment

After weeks of coiling inside an ascending triangle, REC just broke out above the ₹415 mark — the upper resistance line that’s held since April. The breakout candle is not just a formality; it came with 17.15M volume, well above its 20-day average, confirming institutional accumulation.

The timing couldn’t be better. The RBI’s unexpected 50 bps repo rate cut, combined with liquidity-boosting CRR adjustments, has improved credit flow and reduced financing costs — directly benefiting power-financing NBFCs like REC. And that’s exactly where technical meets macro.

Elliott Wave View: Wave 5 Just Started

Zooming out, REC seems to be completing a clean 5-wave Elliott impulse. After a mild correction in Wave (4) — which found support near ₹385 — Wave (5) has now kicked off. Historically, Wave 5 tends to be:

• Explosive, especially if Wave 3 was extended
• Fueled by sentiment and news (hello, RBI boost )
• Supported by breakout patterns like triangles or flags

So, what we’re seeing now is not just a pattern, it’s a pattern within a wave within a macro trigger — a triple confluence.

Price Behavior & Risk Management

• The triangle pattern started forming in early April with consistent higher lows — showing accumulation under resistance.
• The ₹400–₹398 zone is now your battle line. A fall below that = pattern failure and potential trend reversal.
• With volume expansion on the breakout, the breakout is likely genuine, not a bull trap.

Trade Plan

Action	Level	Why it Matters
Entry Zone	₹415–₹418	Above triangle, with volume + Wave 5 kickoff
Stoploss	₹398	Below base + breaks bullish structure
Target 1	₹450	Triangle height (₹35) added to breakout zone
Target 2	₹470	Swing high resistance (Feb-Apr)
Target 3	₹500+	Psychological barrier + Wave 5 extension

Pro Takeaways

• This is not a momentum trap. Price + volume + structure + sentiment all align.
• If the Nifty after rate cut maintains bullish momentum, expect NBFCs like REC to lead the second leg of this rally.
• The triangle breakout in Wave 5, with a supportive macro backdrop, makes REC a high-probability setup — but don’t forget the risk zones.

⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is purely educational and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risk. Stoplosses are essential. Always evaluate market conditions, global cues, and your own risk appetite before acting.

Sacheerome SME IPO: Sweet Scents, Strong Fundamentals

Get ready for another aromatic listing from the SME space! Sacheerome SME IPO, worth ₹61.62 crore, opens for subscription from June 9 to June 11, 2025. With a price band of ₹96–102 and a minimum investment of ₹2.44 lakh, retail investors will need both conviction and capital.

But is the fragrance business worth your money? Let’s dive into the details.

Sacheerome SME IPO Details

Particulars	Information
IPO Opening Date	June 9, 2025
IPO Closing Date	June 11, 2025
Price Band	₹96 – ₹102 per share
Issue Size	₹61.62 crore
Fresh Issue	100% (no OFS)
Lot Size	1,200 shares
Minimum Investment	₹2,44,800
Listing Platform	NSE SME
Tentative Listing Date	June 16, 2025
Face Value	₹10
Retail Quota	Not less than 35%

About Sacheerome Limited

Founded in 1992, Sacheerome is a leading fragrance and flavour manufacturer catering to both B2B and FMCG clients. It develops concentrated scents for products in personal care, food, beverages, home care, baby care, and even pet care.

It has a manufacturing capacity of 7,60,000 kg per year and complies with all major global and domestic standards like FSSAI, FEMA, IFRA, EU Commission, and more.

Its major strengths include:

• Strong in-house R&D team
• Experienced promoters
• Global-standard quality control
• ISO 9001:2015 certified facility
• Application lab with advanced testing tools

Sacheerome SME IPO Objectives

Objective	Estimated Allocation (₹ Cr)
Setting up a new manufacturing facility in UP	₹56.5 Cr
General corporate purposes	Remaining funds

The company plans to scale up with a new production unit in Gautam Buddha Nagar (UP) to meet rising demand from domestic and international clients.

Sacheerome Financial Performance (Last 3 Years)

Metric	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023
Revenue (₹ Cr)	108.13	86.40	70.93
PAT (₹ Cr)	15.98	10.67	5.99
Net Worth (₹ Cr)	61.99	46.00	35.33
Total Assets (₹ Cr)	84.67	63.52	49.22
Debt (₹ Cr)	3.47	1.43	0.00

🧾 Revenue up 25% YoY, and PAT up by 50% – clearly shows healthy, profitable growth before going public.

Sacheerome SME IPO GMP Today

Date	IPO Price	GMP	Estimated Listing Price	Listing Gain (Per Lot)
06-Jun-2025	₹102	₹30	₹132(29.41)	₹36,000

📌 Note: GMP is unofficial and highly volatile. It does not guarantee listing performance.

Peer Comparison

Company	EPS (Diluted)	NAV	P/E (x)	RoNW (%)
Sacheerome Limited	9.79	37.95	10.42*	25.78
S H Kelkar And Company Ltd	5.40	91.89	43.91	5.75

*Implied P/E at upper band (₹102/share)

🟢 Sacheerome’s RoNW and EPS clearly outperform its listed peer, while trading at a far cheaper P/E.

Our View on Sacheerome SME IPO

The Sacheerome SME IPO smells like a promising deal — pun intended. With strong R&D, global certifications, and consistent profitability, the fundamentals are solid.

Add to that:

• Reasonable pricing vs peers
• Fresh equity issue = capital infusion
• Strong demand indicators via GMP

📈 If the Nifty after rate cut continues its upward trend and broader market sentiment holds, Sacheerome could see a sweet debut on the NSE SME platform.

⚠️ Disclaimer: Investing in SME IPOs involves high risk and volatility. GMPs are speculative and unofficial. Do your own due diligence or consult a financial advisor.

Small Cap of the Day: RBL Bank Ltd

CMP: ₹217 | Market Cap: ₹13,247 Cr | Book Value: ₹255

Let’s talk about a bank that’s been around since 1943, yet still manages to confuse investors like a brand-new fintech startup.

Business Snapshot:

RBL Bank operates across five verticals—Corporate Banking, Commercial Banking, Retail Assets, Branch & Business Banking, and Treasury. Basically, it wants to do everything for everyone. Its strategy in recent years has pivoted toward secured lending, cleaning up its past baggage (hello, credit card NPA spike of 2019) and chasing profitability.

What’s Cooking in the Numbers?

Metric	Value	Our Take
P/E	18.5x	Not cheap, but not crazy either
Price to Book (P/B)	0.85x	Undervalued vs sector avg
Book Value	₹255	Stock trading below book value? Intriguing.
ROE	4.73%	Still sleepy. Needs caffeine (or a CEO miracle).
ROCE	6.07%	Meh. Could do better.
Dividend Yield	0.69%	Enough for half a cup of chai
Debt to Equity	8.04x	It’s a bank. Debt is the business model.
Net Profit Margin	10.2%	Decent, improving steadily
3-Yr EPS Growth	84.3%	Finally finding its rhythm!
Intrinsic Value	₹245	If the market believes in redemption, ₹245 isn’t far off

Why It’s on Our Radar:

• Turnaround Story: RBL was in ICU during the NBFC crisis and credit card NPAs, but FY25 numbers show a patient recovering steadily.
• Valuation Comfort: Trading below book value, while peers like Federal and IDFC First are running hot.
• Retail Focus: Shifting toward secured retail loans and granular deposits—reducing risk.
• High Liquidity: ₹10,965 Cr cash equivalents — it’s not broke.

What to Watch:

• Sustainability of Profit Growth – The 84% EPS growth is off a low base. Can it be consistent?
• ROE Improvement – Needs to break out of the 5% zone to attract serious DII money.
• Loan Book Quality – Credit costs must stay under control.

Our View:

At ₹217, RBL Bank looks like a slow-but-steady compounder—a small-cap banking stock that might one day rebrand itself as a mid-cap darling. It’s not a multibagger yet, but definitely not junk either.

Risk-Reward Score: 7.5/10
Long-term Investors? Worth nibbling.
Short-term Traders? Wait for price action above ₹215 for confirmation.

Conclusion: What Next!

From rate cut rallies to ESG revolutions, the market gave us a proper Friday masala mix. Nifty After Rate Cut? Showing signs of short-term excitement, but the real trend will unfold next week. Gold loan stocks glittered, bonds bounced, and IPOs kept buzzing. RBL Bank quietly made its case for a long-term comeback.

And hey, with China tightening its rare earth exports and RBI opening policy doors, the market is no longer just about price—it’s about positioning.

💡 Your Move Now:

• Short-term: Stick to strong breakout setups (like REC Ltd).
• Medium-term: Watch for monetary transmission themes—PSU banks, auto, and rate-sensitive sectors.
• Long-term: Build around changing structural stories—green energy, defence, and SME turnarounds.

Want to act fast before the next big move?
Open a free Demat account with Angel One and get smart tools, detailed charts, and zero-cost delivery trading — so the next time a triangle breaks out, you don’t miss the breakout bus.

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