Market Outlook 14 August: Strong Rally After Inflation Surprise
Good morning and welcome to your Market Outlook 14 August edition.
The Indian stock market witnessed a strong rebound on Wednesday as retail inflation for July 2025 fell sharply to 1.55%, well below the RBI’s target range of 2–6%. This encouraging inflation data eased fears of aggressive interest rate hikes and boosted investor confidence, fueling a broad-based market rally.
Financials, banking, and auto sectors led the gains, while IT stocks remained largely flat, reflecting mixed sentiment in certain pockets. Domestic investors were optimistic, seeing the inflation data as a green signal for continued monetary stability, which could support growth and equity investments in the near term.
In this edition of Market Outlook 14 August, you will get a comprehensive technical view of key indices, market-moving news, IPO updates, and top stocks in radar to help plan your trades before the market opens today.
Index Outlook – Market Outlook 14 August 📊
According to Equity Pandit Analysis, the major Indian indices are showing mixed signals, with short-term negative trends dominating. Traders are advised to monitor daily closing levels closely before initiating fresh positions.
SENSEX – Current View
Level: 80,540 | Trend: Negative
- Stoploss for short positions: 80,853
- Fresh long entry: Only if SENSEX closes above 80,853
Support Levels: 80,345 – 80,149 – 79,980
Resistance Levels: 80,709 – 80,879 – 81,074
Tentative Range: 81,231 – 79,848
Investors should watch key SENSEX stocks and sector weightages to identify potential opportunities for the day.
NIFTY 50 – Current View
Level: 24,619 | Trend: Negative
- Stoploss for short positions: 24,673
- Fresh long entry: Only if NIFTY closes above 24,673
Support Levels: 24,548 – 24,477 – 24,419
Resistance Levels: 24,678 – 24,736 – 24,807
Tentative Range: 24,831 – 24,407
The index remains cautious, and intraday traders should focus on breakout or breakdown levels for momentum trades.
BANKNIFTY – Current View
Level: 55,181 | Trend: Negative
- Stoploss for short positions: 55,703
- Fresh long entry: Only if BANKNIFTY closes above 55,703
Support Levels: 55,026 – 54,870 – 54,712
Resistance Levels: 55,339 – 55,496 – 55,652
Tentative Range: 55,704 – 54,658
Banking stocks are likely to remain volatile; traders are advised to follow the daily stoploss rules and monitor sector-specific news for intra-day movements.
Tip: For investors and traders looking to capitalize on market momentum, keeping an eye on these support and resistance levels will be crucial in planning entries and exits for today’s session.
News & Stocks – Market Outlook 14 August
US H1-B Visa Policy Changes May Impact Indian Professionals 🇺🇸
The US government has replaced the lottery-based H1-B visa system with a wage-based allocation system, prioritizing higher-paid applicants. Additionally, the drop-box facility for visa renewals has been removed, requiring in-person interviews at US embassies and consulates starting September 2, 2025.
Key Impacts:
- Students and tourists may face longer wait times and increased processing challenges.
- Indian IT professionals may experience delayed work visas and potential disruption in work authorizations.
- The $250 Visa Integrity Fee will apply to most visa categories, increasing financial burden.
Stocks Might Be Impacted:
- IT sector stocks (TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCLTech) could see short-term volatility due to concerns over H1-B dependent revenue.
- US client-based IT service providers may face project delays.
Indian REITs See Strong Q1 FY26 Growth 🏢
India’s four listed REITs – Brookfield India, Embassy Office Parks, Mindspace Business Parks, and Nexus Select Trust – collectively distributed Rs 1,559 crore to 2.7 lakh unitholders, marking a 13% YoY growth.
Highlights:
- Combined market cap exceeds Rs 1 lakh crore, showcasing robust investor confidence.
- Portfolio spans 129 million sq. ft. of Grade A office and retail assets across India.
- Reflects strong rental collections and disciplined capital management, making REITs a stable investment avenue.
Stocks Might Be Impacted:
- Positive for real estate and REIT stocks due to strong quarterly distributions.
- Could attract institutional investors seeking stable yields, boosting market sentiment.
SEBI Bans DHFL Promoters for Fraudulent Practices ⚖️
SEBI has banned Kapil Wadhawan, Dheeraj Wadhawan, and four others from securities markets for up to five years, imposing ₹120 crore penalties.
Key Points:
- Fraud involved diverting ₹14,040 crore in loans to Bandra Book Entities (BBEs), misrepresented as retail housing loans.
- Promoters and key personnel barred from holding positions in listed companies.
- Reminder of corporate governance risks in financial markets.
Stocks Might Be Impacted:
- DHFL and NBFC stocks could see volatility or continued negative sentiment.
- Investor caution may spill over to other financial services stocks.
Ola Electric to Enter Sports Scooter Segment 🛵
Ola Electric Mobility Ltd. is expected to unveil its sports scooter lineup on Aug 15, 2025, introducing AI-powered features under Ola Krutrim.
Market Context:
- Sports scooters are gaining popularity in India, with competitors like TVS Ntorq, Yamaha Aerox, and Aprilia SR160.
- Ola’s expansion could boost its EV portfolio and attract tech-savvy urban commuters.
Stocks Might Be Impacted:
- Ola Electric stock may see positive sentiment ahead of product launch.
- Other EV-related stocks could experience volatility due to competitive pressures.
Indian IT Valuations Hit 5-Year Low 💻
Large-cap Indian IT stocks are seeing their lowest valuations in 5 years due to slow earnings growth, delayed client decisions, and limited AI revenue realization.
Key Insights:
- Nifty IT Index P/E stands at 25x, below the 5-year average of 29–30x.
- Mutual fund holdings fell from 9.75% in 2022 to 7.76% in July 2025.
- Brokers like Bank of America have moved IT to ‘overweight’, expecting recovery.
Stocks Might Be Impacted:
- TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCLTech may see short-term buying opportunities.
- Valuations could attract long-term investors, supporting a potential rebound.
Adani Digital Labs Launches Passenger-Centric Initiatives ✈️
Adani Digital Labs (ADL) introduced digital-first airport services to enhance passenger experience across Adani Group airports.
Features Include:
- Adani OneApp for planning, navigation, and airport services.
- Streamlined lounge access, group orders, and park & fly services.
- Real-time flight tracking and notifications for passengers.
Stocks Might Be Impacted:
- Positive for Adani Airport Holdings Ltd. due to enhanced passenger experience and potential revenue growth.
- Could also positively influence Adani Group stocks focused on digital infrastructure.
Mainboard IPO GMP Update
| Name | GMP (Listing Gain) | Open | Close | Listing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gem Aromatics IPO | ₹– (0.00%) | 19-Aug | 22-Aug | 26-Aug |
| Vikram Solar IPO | ₹68 (20.48%) | 19-Aug | 22-Aug | 26-Aug |
| Patel Retail IPO | ₹34 (13.33%) | 19-Aug | 22-Aug | 26-Aug |
| Shreeji Shipping Global IPO | ₹30 (11.90%) | 19-Aug | 22-Aug | 26-Aug |
| Regaal Resources IPO | ₹30 (29.41%) | 12-Aug | 14-Aug | 20-Aug |
| BlueStone Jewellery IPO | ₹2 (0.39%) | 13-Aug | 14-Aug | 14-Aug |
| All Time Plastics IPO | ₹18 (6.55%) | 12-Aug | 14-Aug | 14-Aug |
| JSW Cement IPO | ₹4.75 (3.23%) | 12-Aug | 14-Aug | 14-Aug |
| Knowledge Realty Trust REIT IPO | ₹2 (2.00%) | 12-Aug | 18-Aug | 18-Aug |
SME IPO GMP Update
| Name | GMP (Listing Gain) | Open | Close | Listing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infraprime Logistics SME | ₹– (0.00%) | – | – | – |
| Current Infraprojects SME | ₹– (0.00%) | – | – | – |
| LGT Business Connextions SME | ₹– (0.00%) | 19-Aug | 22-Aug | 26-Aug |
| Studio LSD SME | ₹– (0.00%) | 18-Aug | 21-Aug | 25-Aug |
| Mahendra Realtors SME | ₹8 (9.41%) | 12-Aug | 18-Aug | 20-Aug |
| Icodex Publishing Solutions SME | ₹– (0.00%) | 13-Aug | 14-Aug | 19-Aug |
| ANB Metal Cast SME | ₹– (0.00%) | 12-Aug | 13-Aug | 18-Aug |
| Medistep Healthcare SME | ₹12 (27.91%) | 12-Aug | 13-Aug | 18-Aug |
| Star Imaging SME | ₹2 (1.41%) | 12-Aug | 13-Aug | 18-Aug |
| Connplex Cinemas SME | ₹12 (6.78%) | 12-Aug | 12-Aug | 14-Aug |
| Sawaliya Foods Products SME | ₹20 (16.67%) | 12-Aug | 12-Aug | 14-Aug |
Stock in Radar: Oil India (OINL) – PL Capital View
Rating: BUY | CMP: Rs425 | Target Price: Rs581
Key Monitorable: Production growth and crude/gas realization
Research: PL Capital
Quick Pointers:
- Oil & Gas Realization: Net oil realization at USD66.2/bbl; gas at USD6.7/mmBtu.
- Production Targets FY26: 3.7 MMT of oil and 3.65 BCM of gas.
Performance Overview:
- Oil sales declined 3% QoQ, while gas sales rose 5% QoQ.
- Oil price realization fell from USD74.5/bbl in Q4FY25 to USD66.2/bbl in Q1FY26.
- Company wrote off Rs3.07bn investments in Bangladesh; other expenditure rose to Rs16.9bn vs Rs16bn QoQ.
- EBITDA declined 19% QoQ to Rs16.1bn, and PAT came at Rs8.1bn.
Growth & Expansion:
- Conservative rise expected: 3.8 MMT oil & 3.9 BCM gas in FY27E, vs 3.4 MMT and 3.3 BCM in FY25.
- Long-term volume guidance: 4 MMT oil & 5 BCM gas, subject to DNPL expansion, IGGL completion, and NRL commissioning.
- NRL Expansion: Rs30bn project expected to commission from Dec’25, with Paradip-NRL crude pipeline completion also by Dec’25. Capacity expected to reach 40–45% in H2FY27 and 80% in FY28.
Analyst Meet Key Takeaways:
- Oil discovered in Namrup, production started from DSF field, Jaisalmer.
- NRL expansion 76% physically completed; Paradip-NRL pipeline expected Q4FY26.
- FY26 production guidance: 3.7 MMT oil, 3.65 BCM gas; FY27: 3.95 MMT oil, 4.31 BCM gas.
- Capex FY26: Rs70bn standalone, Rs91bn NRL; FY27: Rs76bn standalone, Rs73bn NRL.
- Production affected by shutdowns at BCPL, BVFCL, LPG plant; lower off-take from NRL.
- Pending clearance for 165km feeder pipeline to Duliajan to connect DNPL to NRL.
Potential Stock Impact:
- Positive: Commissioning of NRL expansion, higher production, and pipeline completion could boost earnings and stock price.
- Negative: Lower oil realization, higher expenditure, and consumer shutdowns may pressure short-term margins.
Disclaimer: This is PL Capital’s view, not an endorsement or advice from our team.
Conclusion: Market Outlook 14 August
The market is set for a cautiously optimistic start, with investors keeping a close eye on key indices, sectoral movements, and upcoming IPO listings.
Key Highlights to Watch:
Equity Trends: SENSEX, NIFTY, and BANKNIFTY are in negative short-term trends; traders should follow support and resistance levels closely for potential intraday or short-term positions.
Global & Domestic Developments: Changes in US H1-B visa rules, growth in Indian REIT distributions, SEBI actions on DHFL promoters, Ola Electric’s sports scooter launch, and IT sector valuation shifts may influence market sentiment.
IPO Watch: Mainboard and SME IPOs, including Vikram Solar, Regaal Resources, and Medistep Healthcare, are generating strong interest with promising GMPs ahead of listings.
Stocks in Radar: High-potential picks like Oil India (OINL), as highlighted by PL Capital, may attract attention due to expansion projects, production targets, and strategic investments.
Investors should stay vigilant, monitor sector-specific news, track IPO performances, and plan trades around key technical levels to capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Prepare, plan, and trade wisely!
Ad
Open FREE AngelOne Demat Account
Open a free demat and trading account. Get Free Expert Advisory for Trading and Investment.
Related Articles
Ethanol Stocks: Govt Refutes E20 Petrol Myths and Fuels Long-Term Growth
Underrated Stocks: How to Find Multibaggers from Your Daily Life
Best Mid Cap Mutual Funds to Invest in 2025 for Long-Term Growth
Get FREEE Updates and News Straight to your inbox!
Join 100+ Subscribers for exclusive access to our Monthly Newsletter with inside Stock Market, IPO, Top Broker, Market Updates