Market Comeback or Just a Breather?

The much-anticipated market comeback finally arrived as markets reopened after the Maharashtra Day break — but instead of a roaring rally, we’re watching what looks more like a cautious jog.

While the Nifty and Sensex are still flirting with their highs, traders are torn: is this the start of the next leg up, or just the calm before more chop? From Ather Energy’s cold IPO close to muted pre-opening cues, the mood is mixed.

In today’s edition, we dive into what’s moving beneath the surface, which stocks are quietly gaining strength, and a long-term pick that might just outwork the noise.

Global Market Update – Mixed Signals, Mild Optimism

Markets worldwide sent a cautious but positive vibe:

• Nasdaq: Flat (−0.09%) – Tech cooled after recent highs.
• FTSE 100: −0.06% – Still stuck in sideways gear.
• CAC 40: +0.50% – French equities riding industrial strength.
• DAX: +0.32% – German stocks gaining on solid macro data.
• Nikkei 225: +1.13% – Sharp rebound, Asia risk appetite returns.
• Hang Seng: +0.51% – Slow recovery continues.
• Shanghai: −0.23% – Profit-taking, China sentiment still fragile.

What Does This Mean for Us?

Global markets are leaning slightly positive — not euphoric, but definitely not panicked.

• Japan and Europe are showing strength, which often signals improving risk appetite globally.
• US markets like the Nasdaq are flat, suggesting investors are waiting on cues (like Fed guidance or jobs data) — not running for the exits.
• Hong Kong and China are stabilizing, which helps sentiment across Asia.

For Indian markets, this backdrop is quietly supportive. There’s no global pressure dragging us down, and just enough green shoots to keep buying interest alive — especially in sectors like capital goods, banks, and export-led plays.

In short:
The world isn’t leading us higher — but it’s certainly not holding us back either. A steady setup for the market comeback to take shape.

Nifty Outlook: Market Comeback or Just Resistance Drama?

The Nifty 50 is tiptoeing near major resistance — and it’s not budging easily.

• Current Level: 24,334
• Trend: Sideways with slight red tick (−0.01%)
• Setup: Stuck below 24,365 — a level the index has tried (and failed) to break for days

What the Chart Says:

• Major Resistance Zone: 24,365 to 24,789
  This is a known rejection zone — last tested in Jan 2025. Unless volume confirms a breakout, it remains the ceiling.
• Support Zone:
  • 23,801–23,863: Prior swing highs
  • 23,050–23,250: Gap support (from April’s rally)
• Candle Patterns: Small-bodied candles near resistance — classic sign of indecision or buildup.

Scenarios to Watch:

✅ Breakout Play

• Trigger: A close above 24,789
• Target: 25,200–25,500
• Plan: Either enter on breakout or accumulate on dip near 23,800

⚠️ Pullback Risk

• Weakness below 24,365 could drag it to 23,863
• Deeper correction = gap fill toward 23,250
• Plan: Wait for reversal candles (like a bearish engulfing) before turning short-term cautious

Bottom Line:

The market comeback is hanging by a thread. Bulls need a clean breakout above 24,789 to continue the rally. Otherwise, a healthy pullback could be on the cards. Don’t guess — wait for confirmation.

Stocks in News – With Real Impact

1. SEBI Says No to F&O Aptitude Tests

SEBI Chief T.K. Pandey has ruled out any mandatory test for retail investors trading in Futures & Options (F&O).
Why? He says it’s impractical to test crores of people and could look like “regulatory overreach.” Despite SEBI’s own study showing 9 out of 10 retail F&O traders lose money, he believes people have the right to manage their money — like how cigarette packs carry warnings but people still smoke.

Impacted Stocks:

• Angel One, IIFL, Motilal Oswal – No regulatory roadblock = F&O participation stays high, which is a big chunk of revenue for discount brokers.
• MCX – As F&O activity stays unchecked, volumes may remain strong.

2. ₹37,600 Cr in 11 Days: FIIs Are Back

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have pumped ₹37,600 crore into Indian equities over 11 straight sessions till May 1 — the biggest buying spree in months.

Why are they buying?

• Weak US dollar = Indian stocks cheaper in dollar terms
• Trade tensions easing
• India’s stable economic growth
• RBI’s steady interest rates
• Valuations improved after the March correction

But can it last? Analysts say the inflow is real — but may not stay at this pace due to high valuations and global risks.

Impacted Stocks:

• ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, L&T, Infosys – Top FII holdings; direct beneficiaries
• Nifty Bank, Capital Goods ETFs – FII flows tend to chase large, liquid stocks and infra plays
• INR vs USD – Stronger rupee supports importers like paint, auto & electronics

3. Jinkushal Industries Files for IPO

A lesser-known name, Jinkushal Industries has filed papers with SEBI for an IPO. It will raise money through:

• Fresh issue: 86.5 lakh new shares
• OFS: 10 lakh shares from promoters

The company started with warehousing & mining, now focuses on import/export of new & used construction equipment.

Impacted Theme:

• Small-cap infra and logistics companies could see renewed interest.
• It also signals that even niche B2B players are eyeing the public market — IPO pipeline still hot.

4. OYO Wants to Sell You Breakfast Now

OYO is jumping into the food & beverage game with:

• In-house kitchens
• Quick-service carts in lobbies
• Branded as “Townhouse Café”

Plan? Roll it out across 1,500 OYO hotels by FY26. Pilots already tested in 100 properties. Food will be ordered via the OYO app or food delivery partners.

Why?
To increase convenience and earn 5–10% more per hotel without raising room rates.

Impacted Stocks:

• Indian Hotels, Lemon Tree, Chalet Hotels – OYO is becoming a mini ecosystem. Could pressure traditional hotel chains to improve F&B offerings.
• Jubilant FoodWorks, Devyani Intl – QSRs may face micro-competition in select markets. A small but growing overlap.

5. Corona Remedies Files ₹800 Cr IPO

Ahmedabad-based pharma company Corona Remedies filed for an IPO — 100% Offer For Sale (OFS).
No new money raised — existing investors, including ChrysCapital and the Mehta promoter group, are exiting partially.

What they do:
Strong in women’s health, diabetes, cardiac care, and urology. They’re ranked as India’s 2nd fastest-growing pharma company (by MAT Dec 2021–24).

Impacted Stocks:

• JB Chemicals, Eris Lifesciences, Indoco Remedies – Mid-sized domestic pharma stocks in similar segments
• This could revive investor interest in under-owned pharma plays with domestic revenue focus

6. Vedanta Demerger by September

Vedanta CFO Ajay Goel confirmed that the group’s mega demerger plan will be completed by September 2025.
The company will split into multiple independent listed entities — one for each business: Aluminium, Zinc, Oil & Gas, Power, Steel, etc.

Impacted Stock:

• Vedanta Ltd – Expect renewed interest as investors prep for value unlocking.
• Expect re-rating in specific business verticals post demerger — like how Adani Transmission and Adani Total Gas gained clarity after restructuring

7. NSE IPO: SEBI’s Green Signal

SEBI Chief confirmed the regulator is actively working to clear the path for the long-awaited NSE IPO.

Key issues being resolved:

• Governance
• Clearing Corporation structure
• Technology
• Ongoing litigations

Impacted Theme:

• MCX, BSE – A listed NSE would shake up competition and potentially attract massive institutional flows
• Fintech sentiment – Improves overall sentiment for exchange-linked tech stocks (CAMS, KFinTech)

Read NSE IPO analysis Here: NSE IPO: A New Era or Another Missed Opportunity?

Stock on Technical Radar: Maruti Suzuki

Maruti Suzuki (₹12,257 | +3.51%) just flashed a classic bullish reversal signal on the daily chart — and this one looks strong.

What’s Happening on the Chart?

• 200-DMA Breakout: After months under the 200-day moving average, Maruti has finally broken above it with conviction. The 200-DMA (₹11,977) is now the new support.
• Strong Marubozu Candle: A bullish candle with almost no wicks = serious buying interest. This isn’t retail noise — volumes are up, hinting at institutional action.
• Double Bottom Breakout: The stock bounced twice from the ₹10,850–₹11,000 zone and has now crossed the neckline (~₹12,000). This validates a W-shaped breakout — often followed by 5–8% upside.

What’s the Plan?

• Buy Between: ₹12,150–₹12,300
• Stop Loss: ₹11,800
• Target 1: ₹12,450
• Target 2: ₹13,000
  Let’s just say, if bulls stay in the driver’s seat, Maruti could cruise toward ₹13K like a Sunday drive.

Why It Matters?

200-DMA breakouts aren’t common — when they happen with volume and a base formation, they usually mean business. With the auto sector also buzzing, Maruti could lead the pack.

Want to ride this technical breakout with clean charts and tight execution?
Open your Angel One account today and hit the accelerator — Maruti’s moving, are you?

Small Cap Stock of the Day: Barbeque-Nation Hospitality Ltd

Barbeque-Nation (CMP: ₹333.10) is a unique play in India’s organised casual dining sector, a space still vastly underpenetrated compared to QSRs like McDonald’s or Domino’s. After years of post-COVID recovery, the company is now showing signs of margin stability — and may be entering a cyclical upswing.

Fundamental View

• Revenue (9M FY25): ₹940.3 Cr (flat YoY — but base effect from FY24 normalization)
• EBITDA Margin: Steady at ~17%, showing operational resilience
• Net Profit: Still in the red (–₹6.76 EPS TTM), but losses are narrowing
• Debt Profile:
  • Total Debt: ₹712.9 Cr
  • But only ₹55.5 Cr in bank loans — rest is lease liability
  • Debt structure manageable, not overleveraged
• Store Network:
  • 226 outlets (190 Barbeque-Nation, 28 premium brands like SALT & Toscano)
  • Strong presence in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities
  • Plans to expand cautiously in FY26
• Recent Strategic Move:
  • Acquired 42.36% in Willow Gourmet Ice Creams — entry into desserts
  • Diversifies the offering, improves dine-in profitability

Cyclical & Sector Outlook

• Casual dining is cyclical. It benefits during periods of rising disposable income and stable urban job growth.
• With inflation cooling and festive-led footfalls recovering, FY26 could be a better year for full-service restaurant chains.
• QSRs have run up fast; casual dining is still undervalued. Investors have chased Devyani, Jubilant, and Westlife — Barbeque may be next as value rotation plays out.
• Discretionary consumption is bottoming out. Footfall recovery + margin recovery = operating leverage upside.

Verdict: Accumulate on Dips

Barbeque-Nation is still a turnaround story — not a fast compounder yet. But if margins improve and losses narrow further, this ₹1,300 Cr smallcap can re-rate quickly in FY26. Keep an eye on profit visibility and expansion discipline.

Final Thought

After the holiday pause, markets are back — and so is the uncertainty. Nifty is staring at resistance, global cues are cautiously optimistic, and FIIs are throwing cash around like it’s 2021. Is this the market comeback we’ve been waiting for? Maybe. But breakouts don’t last unless supported by volume, logic, and discipline.

So instead of chasing the noise, stay focused on structure — whether it’s a breakout on Maruti, a long-term play like Barbeque-Nation, or waiting out the next dip.

And if you’re serious about trading this market comeback with confidence, tools matter.

That’s where Angel One steps in.
From option chain analytics to screeners and algo-backed watchlists — it’s built for traders who like their research clean, and their execution cleaner.

👉 Try Angel One — because in this market comeback, clarity isn’t optional.

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